diamond geezer

 Friday, August 09, 2013

What's the biggest threat to London?

Flood? Fire? Flu? Alien invasion? There is one group of people at City Hall whose job it is to know, and to help us prepare. They're the London Resilience Team, staffed by London Resilience Officers, and they do all sorts of things behind the scenes to keep the capital hazard-ready. Planning for Mass Evacuation. Promoting Business Recovery planning. Developing the London Resilience Partnership Strategy. Coordinating Electricity Disruption workshops. Updating the London Recovery Protocol (which is a disaster recovery plan you'd probably rather not be thinking about).

It should therefore come as no surprise to hear that London has an official risk register. That's the London Risk Register v2.0, a list of potential perils which might beset the capital, ranked by likelihood and impact. Almost 100 "Reasonable Worst Case Scenarios" are considered, each relating to an unplanned event. Communities and businesses are invited to give due consideration to the register's contents so that they remain resilient in the face of heaven knows what. And that's why the plan is shared publicly, providing visibility for forward planning, and scaring the heebeegeebees out of those of a nervous disposition. [pdf]

So, what are the biggest threats to London? The London Resilience Team work this out by rating each risk on a 1 to 5 scale for impact and likelihood, then combining the scores. Impacts rank from Limited (1) to Catastrophic (5), while likelihoods are rated by how likely something is to happen over the next five years (1 in 20000 chance for the lowest category, a 50/50 chance for the highest). This produces a four-point categorisation by colour, with green for the lowest risks and red for the highest. London has four risks in the red zone, four that worry the authorities above all others.

• Severe inland flooding
• Fluvial or surface run-off
• Influenza Pandemic
• Telecommunication failure

Two of the red risks are flood-related. Severe inland flooding could follow sustained heavy rainfall over two weeks, leading to mass evacuation, fatalities, loss of essential services and "significant regional economic damage." Flash flooding or rising river levels would cause more localised damage but could still lead to up to 15000 people being evacuated. Meanwhile influenza could affect up to half of London's population, with 10% of us contacting healthcare professionals in the peak weeks and a fatality rate of up to 2.5%. And just imagine the effects of a 3-day telecommunications failure, with widespread loss of landline and mobile networks, and the emergency services’ communication systems similarly affected. Be afraid, London, be very afraid.

Below is a grid showing a summary of the risk ratings for some of the risks in London's Risk Register. The scale up the side is Impact, and the scale along the bottom is Likelihood. The nearer the top right-hand corner, the scarier. I've been selective, so less than half of the official total number of risks appear below. But the bottom row really is that empty, because the Resilience Team don't bother to include every minor fear or worry.

London's Risk Register June 2013 - Summary of Risk Ratings
5	» Large toxic chemical release » Major reservoir or dam failure	» Local fluvial flooding » National electricity failure	» Telecommunication failure » Severe inland flooding
4	» Aviation accident over an urban area » Loss of drinking water due to major accident	» Accident involving transport of hazardous chemicals » Drought	» Fluvial or surface run-off	» Influenza pandemic
3	» Land movement » Bridge collapse » Localised explosion at natural gas main	» Accident involving transport of fuel or explosives » Large building collapse » Pathogen released	» Storms and gales » Low temps and heavy snow » Emerging infectious diseases	» Influenza epidemic » Major coastal and tidal flooding » Railway accident	» Loss of emergency fire and rescue cover because of industrial action
2	» Forest or moorland fire » Industrial action by key rail workers	» Industrial explosions and major fires	» Animal diseases » Constraint on fuel supply at filling stations	» Heatwave » Influx of British Nationals	» Building collapse » Loss of local telecommunications
1				» Local accident on motorways and major trunk roads
	Low risk		Medium risk		High risk

And not an alien invasion in sight. If all of this is proving interesting, perhaps you'd like to follow London Prepared on Twitter to keep up with what's going down. Or you could like the London Prepared Facebook page, which is currently engaged in a week-long quiz about Warning Signs. Both would of course be useless in the face of a major communications infrastructure failure, but at least you might have learnt something useful to prepare you for the worst. And the London Resilience Team even have their own blog, updated weekly, tucked away on the london.gov.uk website. Last week's Duty Officer Update featured news on water supply disruption and planned road closures, whilst reminding Londoners that "the threat level from International terrorism remains at Substantial." I'll certainly be checking back today for this week's update, just in case...

posted 07:00 :

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