Thursday, June 06, 2019
Three years ago, just before the referendum, I posted this handy table of Eight Alternative Futures.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| BREXIT | NOT
BREXIT |
| BORIS | NOT
BORIS | BORIS | NOT
BORIS |
| TRUMP | NOT
TRUMP | TRUMP | NOT
TRUMP | TRUMP | NOT
TRUMP | TRUMP | NOT
TRUMP |
As a commentariat you offered a broad selection of preferences ranging from "I really hope for #1, at least politics etc would be interesting again" to "If we get #1, stop the world, I want to get off." The only option none of you mentioned was number 3.
Within days the Brexit question resolved itself in favour of the left-hand side of the table, and the selection of Theresa May as PM narrowed the choices to either 3 or 4. Then in November the US election fixed the bottom row, and hey presto we were in future number 3.
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| BREXIT | NOT
BREXIT |
| BORIS | NOT
BORIS | BORIS | NOT
BORIS |
| TRUMP | NOT
TRUMP | TRUMP | NOT
TRUMP | TRUMP | NOT
TRUMP | TRUMP | NOT
TRUMP |
Except maybe we're not. Britain may have voted for Brexit but we haven't yet left the EU, and it remains possible we never will. Also Boris's failure to beat Theresa May in 2016 hasn't damaged his long-term chances, and at time of writing he's currently favourite to replace her.
Which means futures 1, 3, 5 and 7 are still very much up for grabs, but with the three rows now in reverse order.
| 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| TRUMP | NOT
TRUMP |
| BORIS | NOT
BORIS | BORIS | NOT
BORIS |
| BREXIT | NOT
BREXIT | BREXIT | NOT
BREXIT | BREXIT | NOT
BREXIT | BREXIT | NOT
BREXIT |
Even three years later we still have no idea which alternative future will ultimately win out, and attempting to second guess the outcome is as futile as it was before.
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