Remember how aghast we were the first time? We barely shrug a shoulder now, even though that first delay was only until 2019 and the latest is until 2022.
Prior to summer 2018 Crossrail's opening date was advancing in line with expectations.
Months until opening
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3
6
9
12
15
18
2017
Q1
Q2
Q3
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2018
Q1
Q2
But then the apologetic delays kicked in, and recurred with depressing regularity.
Months until opening
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3
6
9
12
15
18
2018
Q3
Q4
2019
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
Q3
Crossrail's opening date has been consistently "just over a year away" ever since.
The latest delay is the longest of all, somewhere between sixteen and twenty-two months, unless of course another delay is announced later (which on past evidence would seem sadly likely).
Covid-19 and social distancing haven't helped, obviously, but a virus which cropped up five months ago can't be held responsible for the full 2018→2022 delay.
Crossrail's problem is that they haven't finished all the construction works yet, nor started properly testing the trains, which on a railway that once got within 100 days of its official opening date is downright astonishing.
We're still at the 'Dynamic Testing' stage, which is also where we were a year ago.
Trial Running can't begin until the regulator gives approval with multiple sign-offs.
• Trial running can't begin until all the stations are ready... but Bond Street still isn't sufficiently far advanced.
• Trial running can't begin until all the shafts and portals are ready... but two haven't yet been handed over.
• Trial running can't begin until the central section routeway is ready... but scenarios are only 71% complete.
• Trial running can't begin until safety and assurance processes have been completed... but filling in 200,000 documents is proving a monumental task.
• Trial running can't begin until testing of the signalling and train systems is complete... but the first 10 iterations of software weren't viable, and version 11 is still being tested prior to further updates in the autumn.
To try to advance proceedings Crossrail have introduced a 6-week construction blockade prioritising critical works in tunnels, shafts and portals. Later in the autumn will come further assurance of the signalling software and the start of systems integration in "operational-like situations". But there's still a very long way to go.
Crossrail hope that Trial Running will begin "at the earliest opportunity in 2021" (although nine months ago they were saying "at the earliest opportunity in 2020", so that could well slip too). Months of intensive operational testing will follow, eventually followed by Trial Operations "to test real-time service scenarios to ensure the readiness of the railway". You and I will only get to ride through the central section after these are complete....in the first half of 2022... if we're lucky.
The entire Crossrail project has become a laughably moveable feast, and all because signalling and construction works have proved much more problematic than anyone dared to mention. It seems 2018's project managers either had their heads in the sand or were well-practised liars.
