diamond geezer

 Friday, June 09, 2017

The Conservatives have failed to gain a majority thanks to 399 voters in eight constituencies.

Here's how.

The Conservatives needed 326 seats to gain a majority, but have only gained 318, which is eight short.

Therefore we need to consider the eight most marginal seats in which the Conservatives came in second place.

Here's one in Scotland.
Perth & Perthshire North maj 21
The SNP's majority of 21 in Perth & Perthshire North would have been wiped out if just 11 people who voted for the SNP had voted Conservative instead. Not voting one way brings the majority down to 10, and then voting the other way creates a Conservative majority of 1.

Here are the next seven most marginal Conservative losses.
Kensington maj 20
Dudley North maj 22
Newcastle-under-Lyme maj 30
Crewe & Nantwich maj 48
Canterbury maj 187
Barrow & Furness maj 209
Keighley maj 249
Had these seven majorities also swung to the Conservatives instead of Labour then the Conservatives would have had 326 seats out of 650, which is technically a majority. And for that to happen, what's needed is for half of those forming the majority to switch from red to blue.
Perth & Perthshire North 11 switchers
Kensington 11 switchers
Dudley North 12 switchers
Newcastle-under-Lyme 16 switchers
Crewe & Nantwich 25 switchers
Canterbury 94 switchers
Barrow & Furness 105 switchers
Keighley 125 switchers
Adding the switcher figures for all eight constituencies gives a total of 399.

399 voters choosing to back Theresa rather than the opposition would have raised Tory support sufficiently to create a majority Conservative government.

Caveat: Sinn Féin never turn up at Westminster, so the winning post is effectively 323. And 323 seats is a target the Conservatives could have reached with just 75 more votes!

However the figures fall, the fact remains that there are fewer than 400 voters on whose choice the outcome of this election hinged. If you changed your mind in Perth, Dudley, Crewe or Canterbury, one of those people could be you... and you changed the future.

<< click for Newer posts

click for Older Posts >>

click to return to the main page

...or read more in my monthly archives
Jan19  Feb19  Mar19
Jan18  Feb18  Mar18  Apr18  May18  Jun18  Jul18  Aug18  Sep18  Oct18  Nov18  Dec18
Jan17  Feb17  Mar17  Apr17  May17  Jun17  Jul17  Aug17  Sep17  Oct17  Nov17  Dec17
Jan16  Feb16  Mar16  Apr16  May16  Jun16  Jul16  Aug16  Sep16  Oct16  Nov16  Dec16
Jan15  Feb15  Mar15  Apr15  May15  Jun15  Jul15  Aug15  Sep15  Oct15  Nov15  Dec15
Jan14  Feb14  Mar14  Apr14  May14  Jun14  Jul14  Aug14  Sep14  Oct14  Nov14  Dec14
Jan13  Feb13  Mar13  Apr13  May13  Jun13  Jul13  Aug13  Sep13  Oct13  Nov13  Dec13
Jan12  Feb12  Mar12  Apr12  May12  Jun12  Jul12  Aug12  Sep12  Oct12  Nov12  Dec12
Jan11  Feb11  Mar11  Apr11  May11  Jun11  Jul11  Aug11  Sep11  Oct11  Nov11  Dec11
Jan10  Feb10  Mar10  Apr10  May10  Jun10  Jul10  Aug10  Sep10  Oct10  Nov10  Dec10 
Jan09  Feb09  Mar09  Apr09  May09  Jun09  Jul09  Aug09  Sep09  Oct09  Nov09  Dec09
Jan08  Feb08  Mar08  Apr08  May08  Jun08  Jul08  Aug08  Sep08  Oct08  Nov08  Dec08
Jan07  Feb07  Mar07  Apr07  May07  Jun07  Jul07  Aug07  Sep07  Oct07  Nov07  Dec07
Jan06  Feb06  Mar06  Apr06  May06  Jun06  Jul06  Aug06  Sep06  Oct06  Nov06  Dec06
Jan05  Feb05  Mar05  Apr05  May05  Jun05  Jul05  Aug05  Sep05  Oct05  Nov05  Dec05
Jan04  Feb04  Mar04  Apr04  May04  Jun04  Jul04  Aug04  Sep04  Oct04  Nov04  Dec04
Jan03  Feb03  Mar03  Apr03  May03  Jun03  Jul03  Aug03  Sep03  Oct03  Nov03  Dec03
 Jan02  Feb02  Mar02  Apr02  May02  Jun02  Jul02 Aug02  Sep02  Oct02  Nov02  Dec02 

eXTReMe Tracker
jack of diamonds
Life viewed from London E3

» email me
» follow me on twitter
» follow the blog on Twitter
» follow the blog on RSS

my flickr photostream