diamond geezer

 Friday, June 09, 2017

Vote2017: The morning after

21:59 The polls close in one minute's time. Is Theresa May heading for a landslide, or has Jeremy Corbyn inspired a Labour surge which'll hold her in check? It'll be the former, surely...
22:00 Bloody hell, what happened there? The exit poll shows the Conservatives on only 314 seats, which is less than they got in the last election, which is miles off what the opinion polls had been predicting. If that's correct then... oh blimey, let's all pick ourselves off the floor and work out what this means.
22:30 The pound has collapsed two cents already. The markets hate uncertainty.
23:00 Newcastle declares, beating Sunderland to the first result, with a 2% swing to Labour. A swing to Labour, golly.
23:45 The other Sunderland seat suggests a swing to the Conservatives, so maybe they're doing better than expected, which is still worse than expected, maybe, it's all still really unclear.
00:25 If you're reading this in the morning you probably have a good idea what's happened. We're still not really sure.
00:50 With early results trickling through, it looks like the Conservatives might be doing well in the north of England while Labour are doing better than expected in the south, which is opposite to the way things used to be, but might reflect the Leave/Remain divide. Maybe.
01:15 More results, better for Labour than expected, not that much was expected. Theresa can't be enjoying this.
01:40 In results thus far, a 1% swing from Conservatives to Labour, which nobody would have believed four hours ago. Someone just mentioned a minority Labour government for the first time, though still not entirely convincingly.
02:00 London is going heavily red. The North and Midlands might be turning bluer. Scotland's SNP yellow is slipping away. But how will it all add up?
02:15 The BBC forecast nudges up to 322 for the Conservatives - still short of an overall majority, but within practical touching distance.
02:40 Jeremy's leadership looks safe, Theresa's premiership much less so. And what of Brexit? Huge questions, no answers.
02:45 There goes Nick Clegg, because Coalition kills... but straight afterwards Cable comes back.
03:15 In Islington, Jeremy's majority is greatly increased. In Maidenhead, Theresa easily outflanks Elmo and Lord Buckethead.
03:30 University towns have seen huge swings to Labour. Paul Nuttall's UKIP challenge disintegrates.
04:00 With 200 seats still to be called the forecast is C318 L267 SNP32 LD11, which looks to be a Parliamentary mess, but a few more seats either way could realign the final outcome.
04:15 The sky is brightening blue. The country isn't.
04:20 Alex Salmond loses his Gordon seat. The Home Secretary is enduring a tight recount.
04:30 Projected vote share is Con 43% Lab 40%. The final poll of polls said 44% 36%. The last time the two main parties both topped 40% was 1970.
04:50 Michael Portillo is long gone, but Enfield Southgate flips back from Conservative to Labour again.
04:55 Simon Hughes fails to retake Bermondsey and Old Southwark. The Home Secretary narrowly survives in Hastings.
05:00 Will the DUP's ten MPs ally with the Conservatives (318?) to prop up the government?
05:15 Jeremy Corbyn has delivered a much better result than expected (with the support of an invigorated youth vote), although is nowhere near winning (so has failed).
05:20 Theresa May called an election to confirm her mandate, but has thrown away her majority and probably won't be around for long. But who will replace her? (Oh God not Boris)
05:30 On mornings like this, it's so hard to decide when to grab some sleep.

08:30 Right, what happened there? Blimey, what a mess.
08:32 OK, so Thurrock (maj 345) just about stayed blue, Zac Goldsmith squeaked back in Richmond Park (maj 45) and Kensington remains too close to call. Labour's vote share in the capital looks like being around 50%.
08:35 The Conservatives look like they'll fall half a dozen seats short of an overall majority, and "the PM has no intention of resigning". Yeah right.
08:55 Here comes that coalition of chaos they warned about, led by the people who warned against it.
09:00 Likely electoral calculus... Con+DUP=318+10=328 ... not strong, not stable.
09:30 Mathematically the ideal coalition would be a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition, but hard experience will prevent that from happening.
10:30 The DUP appear to have come to an agreement with the Conservatives, based on unspoken (but crucial) NI-related conditions, so Theresa May will be able to go to the Palace to ask the Queen to form a government.
10:40 UKIP leader Paul Nuttall resigns.
12:00 Theresa May's election gamble has backfired, just as David Cameron's referendum gamble backfired. No Tory will be keen to ask voters again soon... but expect to be asked again soon.

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