London elects 8 MEPs out of the UK's total of 73. Five years ago London chose four Labour MEPs, two Conservatives, one UKIP and one Green. According to latestpolling, this time might be very different.
2014
2019
Labour
37% (4 MEPs)
24% (2 MEPs)
Conservative
23% (2 MEPs)
10% (1 MEP)
UKIP
17% (1 MEP)
0% (0 MEPs)
Brexit Party
-
20% (2 MEPs)
Green
9% (1 MEP)
14% (1 MEP)
Lib Dem
7% (0 MEPs)
17% (2 MEPs)
Change UK
-
7% (0 MEPs)
Just to remind you how the European Elections work, the UK is divided up into large regional constituencies each of which elects multiple MEPs. Each party puts forward a list of candidates in each constituency and MEPs are elected from the top of each list in approximate proportion* to the number of votes cast. Electors only get to make one cross on the ballot paper, voting for a party rather than for individual candidates, so it's important to know precisely what those candidates stand for. In normal times that's obvious. But these are not normal times.
Green/Lib Dem/Change UK
Labour/Conservative
Brexit Party/UKIP
pro-EU
might be pro, might be anti
anti-EU
If you're thinking of voting either Labour or Conservative, it pays to know what the candidates on each party's list think of Brexit. I've checked that for London. Nobody from the bottom half of a list is going to get elected, so you really only need to canvass the views of the top four.
Labour's London list
1) Claude Moraes: Current MEP. Has been since 1999. REMAIN, but not loudly so.
2) Seb Dance: Current MEP. Has been since 2014. Staunchly REMAIN.
3) Katy Clark: Formerly Jeremy Corbyn's private secretary. Doesn't support a People's Vote.
4) Laura Parker: Momentum-backed candidate. Supports a People's Vote.
5-8) irrelevant
So if Labour gets two London MEPs they'll both be pro-EU. But if Labour reaches three or more, and Katy Clark slips through, the tally will include someone who doesn't want to be part of Europe. Remain voters might be keen for Labour's total to stop at two.
Conservative London list
1) Syed Kamall: Current MEP. Has been since 2005. Subdued LEAVE. Quietly toeing the government line.
2) Charles Tannock: Current MEP. Has been since 1999. REMAIN, and supports a People's Vote.
3) Joy Morrissey: Ealing Councillor. Failed Mayoral nominee. LEAVE supporter.
4) Tim Barnes: Voted REMAIN, but now says Brexit should go ahead.
5-8) irrelevant
The Conservative top four are more mixed, probably deliberately so. If the Tory tally reaches two or more then its MEPs will be on different sides of the debate. As we've discovered at Westminster lately, personal opinion now generally trumps party loyalty.
If public opinion holds from now until polling day then London would end up with...
❁ ❁ 2 Labour MEPs, Claude and Seb, both REMAIN. ❁ ❁ 2 Brexit MEPs, property mogul Ben and salmon-king Lance, both LEAVE. ❁ ❁ 2 Lib Dem MEPs, lawyer Irina and eBooker Dinesh, both REMAIN. ❁ 1 Conservative MEP, Syed, dutifully LEAVE. ❁ 1 Green MEP, environmentalist Scott, fiercely REMAIN.
That's five REMAINs and three LEAVEs, which'd be London sticking up its fingers at at the rest of the country. It may not make much of a difference to the national result though. We could even end up with another 52%/48% split...
