Next week's European elections are likely an irrelevance, assuming the UK leaves the EU shortly after they take their seats. Our MEPs won't be around to make decisions on trading relations between the EU and Britain, or any other legislation, assuming the forces of Brexit get their way. But the political fallout at home may be profound, as certain parties gain momentum and others fall behind, indeed it was UKIP's strong showing in the 2014 European Elections that propelled us into the mess we're in today. Whatever, we have a vote we weren't expecting, and it's important to have our say. But who to vote for?
Former Conservative and UKIP voters keen to back Brexit in the European elections will be drawn inexorably towards the Brexit Party, a one-issue protest bandwagon with no actual policies, but the best chance of delivering a broken nose. Its simple message ensures it's going to do really well.
Those keen to demonstrate loyalty to the EU face a much harder choice because parties insist on fighting separately. Labour's wishy-washy Brexit position is deterring those who want to send a stronger message. Change UK have achieved very little momentum since their launch and may be a lost cause. The Greens beat the Lib Dems last time but the Lib Dems are doing much better this time, so which to pick? Gina Miller's Remain United website proposes voting Lib Dem across the whole of England as the best chance of beating Nigel. But electorates tend not to vote tactically en masse, so the risk of splitting the Remain vote remains very real.
When the votes are counted next week, the anti-EU party that doesn't want a second referendum is likely to claim that its strong showing is the equivalent of another referendum victory, before disappearing in a puff of logic. There'll be pressure on the two main parties for doing badly, and smiles on the face of smaller parties for doing so well. But the entire procedure likely remains a irrelevance... unless it tips the domino that starts the unstoppable process of leading us towards wherever we're ultimately heading, just like it did in 2014.
Next week's European elections are likely an irrelevance, assuming the UK leaves the EU shortly after they take their seats. Our MEPs won't be around to make decisions on trading relations between the EU and Britain, or any other legislation, assuming the forces of Brexit get their way. But the political fallout at home may be profound, as certain parties gain momentum and others fall behind, indeed it was UKIP's strong showing in the 2014 European Elections that propelled us into the mess we're in today. Whatever, we have a vote we weren't expecting, and it's important to have our say. But who to vote for?
