Had a tiny virus not intruded, today would have been election day for the Mayor of London and London Assembly.
It was also once pencilled in as the day David Cameron would ask the country for a third term, but that's probably too many parallel universes away for rational consideration.
Several weeks of campaigning and propaganda would now be over, and we'd all have been trooping down to the polling station or hoping our postal votes arrived in time. All the pre-lockdown opinion polls suggested Sadiq Khan was on course for a comfortable victory and would be set up at City Hall for a further four years. Instead the election has been duly postponed until Thursday 6th May 2021, which means Sadiq gets an extra 52 weeks in power free of charge and his opponents can only sit and watch.
2000
Ken (39%) v Steven (27%)
2004
Ken (37%) v Steven (29%)
2008
Boris (43%) v Ken (37%)
2012
Boris (44%) v Ken (40%)
2016
Sadiq (44%) v Zac (35%)
2021
???
Sadiq Khan announced he'd be standing for re-election two years ago, setting aside any Parliamentary ambitions for the time being. Like Ken and Boris before him, he hopes being a two-term Mayor will cement his reputation. If he doesn't win the postponed election it'll be a huge shock.
Shaun Bailey was chosen as the Conservative challenger in September 2018, and hasn't made much of an impact on the contest since. His big theme is defeating crime, an area where he believes the current Mayor is vulnerable, but he's had less to say in other areas. Extending his run-up from 20 months to 32 isn't likely to help. [website]
Siobhan Benita is the Lib Dem candidate, and the only person to get a leaflet through my letterbox before the election was postponed. Her priorities are a "safer", "greener" and "kinder" London, reflecting a broadly upbeat centre-ground portfolio. She first ran for Mayor in 2012 as an independent. [website]
Siân Berry planned to run again for the Green Party. She also ran in 2008 and 2016, doubling her support to 6%. Amazingly Siân would have been the third main candidate with the initials SB, indeed all four have first names that begin with S. [website]
The race should have been enlivened by wildcard Rory Stewart, former Tory leadership candidate, in need of a new challenge after being sidelined in a realigned party. He hoped to capitalise on his everyman persona, even inviting himself round to random Londoners to stay the night, and had plans for a 'Just Build It' housing programme and a London Youth Corps. But Rory threw in the towel yesterday, his independent campaign unable to sustain itself through an extra 12 months, so the 2021 election is back to being a one-horse race. [website]
It's hard to second guess what the big issues in the 2021 Mayoral election might be, indeed probably unwise to try, other than to assume that finances will be more stretched. But the Mayor's powers will remain fairly limited, outside transport, policing and high level planning, so nudging the capital's economy back to good health may prove challenging.
I suspect all that can prevent Sadiq winning the election on Thursday 6th May 2021 is if things get so bad they have to postpone it again.
