A few months down the line, this is still the individual trajectory each of us are on.
Not had it
Got it
Had it
Yellow, then maybe to red, then hopefully to green.
Despite science's best efforts, we still don't know what proportion of the population is in each group.
It'd be nice if it was this.
Alas it's probably more like this.
But also crucially important, from an individual standpoint, is what you think your status is.
Think you
haven't had it
Think you've
got it
Think you've
had it
Because how you act depends on what you believe, not on the underlying truth.
Think you haven't had it A significant proportion of the population believe they haven't had the virus. If you've had no symptoms, then you'd have no reason to believe you had. But a lot of infected people are entirely asymptomatic, it turns out, so this is an easy diagnosis to miss.
Think you've got it This could be terrifying. The disease is renowned for its unpredictability, sometimes getting much worse later on, and at the start you have no idea what trajectory you're on. But symptoms are also variable, even inconclusive, so not everybody who thinks they've got it truly has.
Think you've had it With symptoms gone, either after a mild case or a rough ride, the sense of relief must be palpable. Nothing guarantees that having it once stops you having it again but, assuming the symptoms were what you thought they were, it'd be excellent to have left them behind.
Which creates a 3×3 matrix, matching what we think to what's actually the case.
Not had it
Got it
Had it
Think you
haven't had it
!!
Think you've
got it
Think you've
had it
!
!!
I've greyed out the leading diagonal, where what we think is actually true.
The other six boxes, where our behaviour doesn't match the underlying truth, are more concerning.
Got itThink you haven't had it This is the really dangerous combination. You don't think you've got the virus but you have, so could be transmitting it (obliviously) to all and sundry. This is why catching a sneeze in a tissue is important, even if you think it's just hayfever. This is why washing your hands is important, because it stops the next surface you touch becoming dangerous to others. And it's why wearing a mask is recommended in confined locations, because your breath might be a lot more dangerous than you think.
Had itThink you haven't had it This is the inefficient combination. You've already had the virus without realising it, so may now be wasting your time taking all sorts of precautions when in reality the danger has passed. There's no medical guarantee that recovery provides immunity, of course, but short term your susceptibility is almost zero.
Not had itThink you've got it This is the hypochondriac combination. Those symptoms you're exhibiting look like coronavirus but they're not, so you're worrying over nothing. If only there was a way to know that for certain.
Had itThink you've got it This is the recovery combination. You think you're still battling the disease but in fact you've defeated it... it may just have left you in worse health than before.
Not had itThink you've had it This is the misguided combination. You're convinced that fever you had a few weeks ago was coronavirus so may be swanning around assuming you're untouchable. You might even have jumped to the same conclusion about that cough you got in February which was actually something else entirely. If your self-diagnosis is incorrect, that could be very bad news later.
Got itThink you've had it This is the other really dangerous combination. Again you're convinced you've had the virus when you haven't, based on a misreading of what you think is the available evidence. But let your defences down and you could now be spreading it to all and sundry without even realising. Never assume. Assumption kills.
What'd be much more helpful is to know rather than think.
Not had it
Got it
Had it
Know you
haven't had it
Know you've
got it
Know you've
had it
A nationwide testing programme would help keep more of us on that leading diagonal.
Not had itKnow you haven't had it This is the box that allows carers to go back to work and nurses to return to their patients. If you know you're not infectious you have the reassurance not to have to stay at home in self-isolation. Of course this assumes the test is accurate, which isn't always the case, but it's still much better than no test at all.
Got itKnow you've got it This is the key to quashing the spread of the virus. If those who had the virus knew they had it, self-isolation would be the norm and additional cases could be prevented. Of course this assumes the test has a rapid turnaround, which isn't always the case, but it's still much better than no test at all.
Had itKnow you've had it This is the antibody test box. If you know you've had the virus, rather than just think you have, a path back to some kind of normality beckons. Of course this assumes your antibodies continue to provide protection, which isn't necessarily the case, but it's still much better than no test at all.
Too many of us are still going about our lives thinking rather than knowing.
Too great a proportion of the population are still at risk from ignorant behaviour.
The risk of a second spike remains very real indeed.
Because until a vaccine comes along...
Know you can't get it
Had it
...testing is the only way to know precisely where we're at.
