A year ago today I took Eurostar to Belgium and spent the day in Antwerp. Don't worry, I'm not going to spend today reminiscing at length. But it is the last time I travelled abroad, and I wondered whether 'travelling abroad' might now be something people do far less of.
Is 'travelling abroad' now something people might do far less of?
Essay Notes(n.b. write this up later into something more structured)
Introduction
• definition of 'abroad' = not the country you live in
• involves crossing a border
• often involves a long journey
• mostly for work or leisure
Reluctance to travel abroad
i) quarantine (actual or potential)
ii) unwillingness to endure close contact
iii) videoconferencing makes travel for work unnecessary
iv) the pound's not worth what it was - holidays are more expensive
Expectations
• people have come to expect a foreign holiday, maybe two (beach/ski)
• coronavirus has upended expectations
• foreign holidays remain cheap but are no longer attractive
• now seeing increased demand for UK holidays
• n.b. this is not a 'staycation'
• n.b. UK holidays are excellent anyway
Quarantine
• having to quarantine on arrival makes holiday redundant
• having to quarantine on return takes shine off the holiday (or makes it entirely impractical)
• example: my day trip to Antwerp would today have to be followed by 14 days of self-isolation
• fear that quarantine (or other restrictions) may be imposed while you're abroad
• result - unwillingness to book months in advance
Dilemma
• government needs to limit foreign travel to control the virus
• government needs to encourage foreign travellers to boost the economy
UK borders
• from the UK travelling abroad almost* always involves crossing water
* n.b. special case - Republic of Ireland
• UK therefore has a more fixed view of 'abroad' than most continental countries
• means of travel restricted to...
• flights (long/medium/short)
• sailings (short)
• Eurostar/Eurotunnel (short)
Eurostar
• requires you to spend hours in a confined space with strangers
• train might be half empty or might not... and you don't know when you book
• you might end up sitting opposite someone who refuses to wear a face covering
• evidence: Eurostar has already cut its services as demand plummets
Flight
• requires you to spend hours in a small metal tube with recycled air
• social distancing on planes is uneconomic
• no control over who sits beside (or behind) you
• hard to think of a better way to spread infection
• it's how the virus came to the UK in the first place
• result - increased reluctance to fly
• evidence: passenger numbers at Heathrow 89% lower in July 2020 than July 2019
• result - fewer airlines flying to fewer places
• evidence: 60% of Heathrow's route network currently grounded
• flying could once again become a luxury for the rich
Personal anecdote about travelling abroad
• nobody's interested
• not appropriate in this context
• resist temptation to include
Climate change
• activists had been trying unsuccessfully to persuade everyone to travel less
• coronavirus successfully persuaded everyone to travel less
• technology will allow a lot of people to travel less in the future
• if Europe's climate warms, no need to travel abroad for summer heat
Brexit
• no effect on foreign travel until transition period ends, but then...
• additional red tape required to travel
• need to join slower passport channel
• EHIC card no longer valid
• 'duty free' rather than customs-free
• etc etc
Devolution
• smaller countries = more borders = more travel hassle
Migration
• migration = travelling abroad one-way, as a matter of last resort
Human rights
• some countries don't like you leaving
• some countries don't like you arriving
• (we are one of the latter)
Temporary or permanent change?
• unclear when foreign travel will become easy again
• unclear if foreign travel will become easy again
• foreign travel may be something younger generations don't get the chance to experience
• uncertain what effect this might have on the mindset of the general population
Conclusion
• seeing the world just got a lot harder
• Britons may well end up travelling abroad less
• this may not be a good thing
