Over the summer, many a pub, cafe and restaurant has been saved by Eating Out To Help Out. Crucially they've been rescued by the weather generally being warm enough to Eat Out at tables in gardens, on pavements and in any available outdoor space. But how long will the weather hold out before diners are forced back inside?
To try to find out I've gone back and spreadsheeted the temperature on every single day of the last decade. Specifically I've used maximum temperature data from Hampstead, which is generally a tad cooler than central London but a bit warmer than the shires, from January 2010 to December 2019.
A temperature above 20°C makes for pleasant al fresco dining. But how often does that happen?
Days exceeding 20°C
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0%
0%
1%
11%
26%
61%
83%
76%
35%
4%
0%
0%
In June, July and August it happens most of the time. In September, rather less so. After September, almost never... until May comes back round. If you're trying to serve customers outdoors, that's not great news.
But Britons are more resilient than that and will eat outdoors in lower temperatures. For example the temperature in London has topped 20°C just once over the last week, but that won't have deterred most diners from enjoying external refreshment. What if we lower the temperature threshold to 15°C instead?
Days exceeding 15°C
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0%
2%
14%
46%
78%
95%
100%
100%
95%
54%
8%
1%
From June to September the temperature almost always reaches at least 15°C. In July and August it's pretty much a dead cert. That's been good news for pub landlords and restaurateurs with outdoor terraces to fill. But by October it's rather more fifty-fifty, and after that the temperature takes a nosedive. Indeed November through to March are really challenging months for unheated outdoor hospitality, a situation that'll only start to be remedied next April.
Eating Out has about six to eight weeks left, if we're lucky, after which the seasons turn and the only practical option becomes Eating In. Let's hope your favourite pub or restaurant is still serving when Easter comes round.
