Yesterday the Prime Minister announced that the final step of unlocking will involve the ending of all legal restrictions on social distancing. No more signing into venues, no more Rule of Six at home, no more insistence on face coverings, no more One Metre Plus rule indoors, no need for table service in bars and no blanket recommendation to work from home. It's all subject to confirmation next Monday and won't come into effect until the Monday after, but it's an enormous step to take.
It's also a highly controversial step because cases are rising fast but deaths are a fraction of what they were as vaccination weakens the chain of infection so do you restore freedom of choice and revitalise the economy and learn to live with the disease or hold off for now and keep some restrictions to protect those who otherwise might die or suffer from long term complications?
When Boris introduced his roadmap in February he assured us it would be irreversible.
He didn't seem quite so keen to use the word yesterday, instead focusing on the fact it's the height of summer and the start of the school holidays so if not now, when?
But if he's correct, or determined to be unlock whatever, then England can look forward to no restrictions for the rest of the year (and beyond).
This allows me to create a simple timeline of the pandemic during 2020 and 2021, a brief monthly snapshot of fluctuating curbs on freedom. I like the simplicity of it (and if only recent unlocking stages hadn't occurred mid-month it'd be simpler still).
2020
2021
Jan
Normal
LOCKDOWN
Feb
Normal
LOCKDOWN
Mar
→ LOCKDOWN
→ Step 1
Apr
LOCKDOWN
Step 1 → Step 2
May
LOCKDOWN
Step 2 → Step 3
Jun
STAY ALERT
Step 3
Jul
EAT OUT
→ Normal
Aug
EAT OUT
Normal
Sep
RULE OF 6
Normal
Oct
TIERS
Normal
Nov
'LOCKDOWN'
Normal
Dec
TIERS
Normal
One big red peak last spring.
One smaller red peak last autumn.
One longer red peak this winter easing through the spring.
Not that we realised all this at the time.
Back on 2nd January 2021 I asked you to consider 'the Christmas test'.
Imagine an unlimited number of households being able to travel across England to meet inside somebody else's home. When do you think we might be able to have a normal Christmas again? It doesn't have to be December 25th, it could be any replacement date to make up for the one we didn't just have. It might not be this year. When's the first time, legally speaking, a normal Christmas might be allowed?
I asked you to pick a month and a year and leave a prediction, and 108 of you responded.
We now know the 'Christmas' date is going to be this month. Come July 19th an unlimited number of households will be able to meet up inside someone else's home anywhere in the country, and if they fancy eating turkey and pulling belated crackers they can.
But this is not what you thought six months ago, you were a lot more pessimistic.
Back in January only five of you correctly predicted July 2021 (that's RC, Simon Guy, Rich, Bob L-S and 2d53's wife). Another five picked June and another ten picked August, so they were close. But most people picked a later month, with October 2021 the most popular.
In fact 43% of you picked 2022 as the next time Christmas might be possible, which proved way short of the mark, and 88% of you picked a date later than the actual result of July 2021.
The day I asked the question was a few days before the UK re-entered lockdown for the third time, which may have coloured opinions about how long getting out of this mess might take. Instead vaccination got us to the exit date much faster, that and a government focused on taking risks to restore normality.
But you were much too optimistic when I asked you to make a prediction this time last year. On 2nd July 2020 I asked whether you thought lockdown restrictions would be in force at New Year and 70% of you wrongly said they wouldn't.
We are notoriously bad at predicting the future, and when that future arrives we often forget how bad we were at predicting it.
So let's give it one more go. Let's ask the Christmas question again.
On Christmas Day 2021 will an unlimited number of households will be able to travel across England to meet inside somebody else's home (as normal), or will certain restrictions have been reimposed?
Pick one box, make your prediction and leave a comment in the relevant box.
It can be a one-word comment (Normal/Limited/Restricted/Lockdown) or you can write a brief sentence.
This is what you think will happen, not what you want to happen.
Please don't leave the name field blank.
And at Christmas we'll come back and see if you were any better at making predictions this time... or any better than our Prime Minister.
