The Cabinet Office has just revealed the 39 places which have applied for city status as part of the 2022 Platinum Jubilee Civic Honours Competition. It's not known how many will becomecities because that's never specified, but normally no more than one per home nation is awarded the honour. The decision will made by government ministers (advised for the first time by an expert panel). Expect an announcement in advance of the Queen's Platinum Jubilee celebrations next summer.
Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries said:
"Her Majesty The Queen’s Platinum Jubilee is an exciting chance for local areas to become cities and level up opportunities for all. As well as fostering local pride and potential, this competition is a great way to mark Her Majesty’s 70 year reign."
I've taken the longlist of 39 and shuffled it into geographical categories (and also added approximate populations to give some idea of scale).
South East England
South West England
Colchester, Essex (140,000)
Crawley, West Sussex (110,000)
Guildford, Surrey (80,000)
Medway, Kent (280,000)
Milton Keynes, Bucks (230,000)
Reading, Berks (160,000)
All the towns in the southeast column are strong contenders, being both large and locally important. Surrey, Berkshire and Buckinghamshire are the most populous English counties that don't yet contain a city. Medway is hoping to right an administrative bungle which saw Rochester lose city status when it was upgraded to a unitary borough in 1998.
Bournemouth is part of the largest English urban area not to be a city (although the bid is only on behalf the town itself so does not include Poole and Christchurch). The other bidders in the southwest column are quite frankly having a laugh. Newport on the Isle of Wight points to Carisbrooke Castle to support its futile bid. Marazion is a lovely but insignificant town adjacent to St Michael's Mount and is one of several bids to have been organised by a delusional councillor.
Alas southern towns don't stand much of a chance because a) the last two English towns to gain city status were both in Essex b) the award is in the control of ministers keen to promote a levelling-up agenda. Medway might just get a reprieve (as a bonus extra) if someone's feeling charitable, but don't expect any of these ten to be successful.
Blackburn, Lancs (120,000)
Crewe, Cheshire (75,000)
Doncaster, S Yorks (110,000)
Goole, E Yorks (20,000)
Middlesbrough, N Yorks (140,000)
Warrington, Cheshire (160,000)
The successful English town will almost certainly be one of these twelve, and quite likely from the last election's 'red wall'. Dudley is the largest of all the contenders, but neighbouring Wolverhampton got the nod in 2000 so it's probably too soon. This is the fifth time Northampton's had a go, and were it successful it'd plug a large cityless gap in the East Midlands.
Warrington's had two previous attempts and Doncaster's had three. Bolsover and Goole are just trying to be noticed. Crewe has ideas above its station. Blackburn is the largest English cathedral town never to have been a city. It first tried and failed in 1972, and is right to keep on trying. Middlesbrough is the other prime English contender for city status because its elevation would tick several political boxes so is my top tip as a jubilee winner.
Livingston (60,000)
Oban (8,000)
St Andrews (17,000)
South Ayrshire (110,000)
It's harder to pick a Scottish winner given that all the most likely candidates have already been awarded city status. Livingston is the largest of the eight (Paisley and East Kilbride are larger, but they aren't bidding). St Andrews' royal connections might serve it well. Thus far no town south of the central belt has become a city which should be good news for Dumfries, although probably not for Ayr (which is embedded in a bid for South Ayrshire). If outlying Oban wins the title all bets are off.
Wrexham is the only Welsh town to put in a bid so should win city status by default. It lost out to lowly St Asaph (population 3300) in the 2012 contest, which just goes to show how unpredictable the awarding of city status is. It just has to hope the government doesn't decide to give Wales a rest this jubilee round.
Northern Ireland earned two new cities in 2002 and none in 2012 so should be up for another. Bangor is the largest of the three (and would join Bangor in North Wales were it successful). Coleraine is the only one with a university campus and would be the furthest from an existing city. None of the three has a cathedral.
The government's done something new this time which is to invite Crown Dependencies and British Overseas Territories to submit bids. I can't see a Labour government having suggested that.
Crown Dependencies
Overseas Territories
Douglas, Isle of Man (28,000)
Peel, Isle of Man (5,000)
Two towns on the Isle of Man have put in a bid, and not even the largest two. The Channel Islands decided to give it a miss. Douglas might therefore have been in with a chance were it not for the second column.
The City of Gibraltar is just the kind of honour I can imagine this government bestowing. George Town might be a better bet, given the offshore contribution the Cayman Islands make to many a politician's back pocket, plus it's the most populous settlement in the British Overseas Territories. Patriotic logic however suggests that Stanley in the Falklands might have the best chance, given how much it would delight some voters and antagonise others.
Ministers have a few months to sit on the decision before launching the good news into the Platinum Jubilee celebrations. But my money's on Middlesbrough and Wrexham, and maybe St Andrews and Bangor, and quite possibly the City of Gibraltar to crown the lot.
Jubilee update: the lucky eight (eight!) Jubilee cities are Colchester, Milton Keynes, Doncaster, Dunfermline, Bangor, Wrexham, Stanley and Douglas. I've coloured them red in the tables above.
