At the start of July, as the Prime Minister announced the end of all legal restrictions on social distancing, I asked you what you thought would happen at Christmas.
Specifically I asked...
On Christmas Day 2021 will an unlimited number of households will be able to travel across England to meet inside somebody else's home (as normal), or will certain restrictions have been reimposed?
The most popular expectation was a normal Christmas, but the majority of you thought some restrictions would be in place. We'd been living with restrictions on gatherings and travel for so long that some reinstatement might have seemed natural.
Here are a few astute comments you made, as things turned out.
• I'll gamble on science and that vaccinations are effective enough to allow a normal Christmas. (Andrew)
• Maybe false optimism, but I think the vaccine will continue to limit hospitalisations and deaths. (Mike)
• I think the rules will be for a 'normal' Christmas whether it's the right decision or not. (Peter)
• No restrictions in force. Whether it's actually advisable to gather in large groups is another matter. (Chris)
• The only reason to impose any other restrictions is if some vaccine-resistant mutation comes out. (Moritz)
• Normal, but by January some restrictions (if not another lockdown) will be necessary. (Toni)
• I don't know whether it will be safe or not, but that doesn't seem to be a consideration. (Andyrew)
It's taken until almost the last minute to get an answer, but the Prime Minister has finally confirmed that...
You weren't so prescient back in January guessing when unlimited household gatherings might be permitted again. Your collective average for full unlocking was October 2021, although the real date was three months earlier (and 40% of you suggested it wouldn't happen until 2022). But your July predictions proved more accurate with 41% predicting this would be a Normal Christmas, even if that did rely on a collective combination of faith, hope and downright cynicism.
It also suggests that 2022 remains beyond the realm of sensible prediction. Not many of us would have guessed at the start of the pandemic that it'd still be steering our lives almost two years later. Who's to say how much further this tale has yet to run?
What I can now do is update my summary of pandemic restrictions 2020-2021... a brief monthly snapshot of fluctuating curbs on freedom.
2020
2021
Jan
Normal
LOCKDOWN
Feb
Normal
LOCKDOWN
Mar
→ LOCKDOWN
→ Step 1
Apr
LOCKDOWN
→ Step 2
May
LOCKDOWN
→ Step 3
Jun
STAY ALERT
Step 3
Jul
EAT OUT
→ 'Normal'
Aug
EAT OUT
'Normal'
Sep
RULE OF 6
'Normal'
Oct
TIERS
'Normal'
Nov
'LOCKDOWN'
'Normal'
Dec
TIERS
PLAN B
One big red peak last spring.
One smaller red peak last autumn.
One longer red peak last winter easing through the spring.
Relative normality from late summer until omicron suddenly reared its head.
The 2022 column remains a mystery, although I bet it starts with something red.
Another thing that's hard to guess, over and above emerging variants, is how public acceptance of rules might have changed following all the recent revelations about ministers ignoring them.
Those parties make me sick. Rules are there to be kept.
Those parties make me sick. I won't be keeping the rules now.
Those parties aren't important. Rules shouldn't tie you down.
It'd be ironic if the government's collective rule-breaking ended up making the general public less likely to follow the rules themselves.
But those incidents may also have started a countdown on Boris's premiership, not because an election is imminent but because the Conservative party is ruthless in placing someone electable at the helm. So the question I'd like to ask this time is...
Who do you think will be Prime Minister this time next year?
Pick the person you expect, not the person you want. Anyone other than the top 3 (e.g. Priti, Sajid or Sir Keir) goes in the fourth box. Keep any accompanying text short.
And this time next year I'll come back and see if we got anything about 2022 right.
