diamond geezer

 Friday, June 03, 2022

I hope you're enjoying the jubilee because we don't get many and it's highly unlikely you'll see another.

 1809 GOLDEN50 yearsGeorge III
1887GOLDEN 50 years Victoria
1897DIAMOND60 yearsVictoria
1935SILVER25 yearsGeorge V
1977SILVER25 yearsElizabeth II
2002GOLDEN50 yearsElizabeth II
2012DIAMOND60 years Elizabeth II 
2022 PLATINUM 70 yearsElizabeth II

The first royal jubilee was for King George III in 1809, officially to celebrate the start of his 50th year as monarch so technically a 49th anniversary. The first two-day jubilee was for Queen Victoria in 1887, and was celebrated with a banquet, a service of Thanksgiving and a carriage procession through the City. The first jubilee bank holiday was in 1897, Queen Victoria's diamond year, which was also the first jubilee with beacons and the award of city status.

George V was the first monarch to officially celebrate a silver jubilee, the first to give a jubilee broadcast and the first to wave from the balcony of Buckingham Palace. His granddaughter is the first to celebrate four jubilees, including the first to incorporate a world tour, the first with a guitar solo from the roof, the first with a river pageant and the first with its own special trifle.

We've perhaps got a bit blasé about jubilees given there have been three this century. But we've only had these jubilees thanks to the quirk of being ruled by a long-lived monarch whose father died when she was young, and after this weekend we should expect never to see another.



Our best chance of enjoying another jubilee is if the Queen is still on the throne in five years' time. She'd be 101, still six months younger than her mother was when she died, so genetics suggest we're in with a chance. But jubilees are usually announced two years in advance, so it'd be a brave minister who in 2025 announced an extra bank holiday in June 2027 to celebrate her 75th. Also it's not clear what kind of jubilee it would be, given that 'diamond' always used to mean a 75th anniversary until Queen Victoria reappropriated the title for her 60th, and platinum is usually the top of the precious metal hierarchy.

If Elizabeth II doesn't reach another jubilee then Charles is incredibly unlikely to deliver one either. His silver jubilee requires a reign of 25 years so can't take place before 2047, and by that time he'd be 98, i.e. older than his mum is now. Again it's not impossible because his father reached 99, but a bookmaker would offer minimal odds on this ever happening.

Prince William therefore offers the best chance of a silver jubilee, but not for some time yet. He's going to be 40 later this month so should have plenty of life left, potentially enough time to fit in a 25 year reign. But that reign can't start until we've had two state funerals, abdication crises notwithstanding, by which time William could be well into his 50s, even 60s. If Prince Charles reigns until the second half of the 2030s then William's silver jubilee can't be until the 2060s, and that's a very long time to wait for a bonus bank holiday.

Who's to say where society, the monarchy or even civilisation are going to be in years to come, making all this speculation mostly worthless. But as things stand any future silver jubilees are destined to be celebrated by very old kings and any golden jubilees are entirely off the table. Alas arithmetic dictates that a silver jubilee can only ever follow 25 years of jubileelessness, and royal age gaps suggest we're in for a much longer wait than that.

Best make the most of what's left of this jubilee, because it's very probably your last.


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