Some years you instantly associate with a major event.
1066
1666
1966
Some years conjure up collective memories.
1977
2012
2016
If you know your history, some years scream 'turning point'.
1215
1485
1649
But those were all a bit Anglo-centric.
These years resonate rather more widely.
1969
1989
2001
And the following even more so.
1914
1939
2020
Those last three were all years in which life got considerably worse for a large proportion of the population. Millions of people had plans for the future, then these years came along and derailed things and life was never quite the same afterwards. They were also generally unexpected. Sure history students can write mountains of essays about why all the preconditions for war were in place, and scientists knew some kind of a pandemic was inevitable, but those years still crept up on us unexpectedly and nobody quite predicted the massive level of change they'd bring.
Economically speaking, these three years brought misery for millions.
1929
1973
2008
Belt-tightening, fuel crises and financial collapse are not things which improve a nation's standard of living, only hold it back. We're in one of those downturns at the moment, a combination of 2016, 2020 and 2022 which has limited horizons, killed off dreams and stranded grand schemes on the drawing board. We hope a period of sustained growth will return, ideally soon, but we don't yet know if economic optimism has peaked.
And I mention all this because there will be years in the future when downturn and disaster strike again, we just don't know what they are yet.
Look at this list now and it's just a list of upcoming years.
But look back in 50 years and some of these years will stand out, perhaps for good reasons but more likely for bad. Some will be associated with an eyeroll, others with sorrow or despair, and some may only be mentioned in hushed tones. Perhaps 2026 is the next big one, perhaps 2031, or perhaps things get so bad in 2044 that everyone wishes it was 2023 again.
At least one will be an economic downturn because these come round relatively often. Anything could trigger it, especially in a globally connected world, but whenever it happens a significant proportion of the population will once again find their horizons limited. Not being able to maintain your Netflix subscription could be the least of your worries.
Climate change seems certain to make a significant impact on our planet, perhaps inexorably like boiling the proverbial frog. But expect a good few specific tipping points to register, or calamities so great that even naysayers have to take heed, like the loss of a major world city to the waves or a wildfire on a regional scale. It's possible the year global harvests fail is in that list, or the year the Gulf Stream stops flowing or the year the West Antarctica ice sheet collapses, but as yet that year still looks benign.
We're always due another pandemic, indeed as we saw they can crop up at any time with very little warning. We got lucky with Covid, it wasn't hyper-contagious and its fatality rate was low, but we might not be so fortunate next time and it could come sooner than you think.
Other potential catastrophes include a massive volcanic eruption blocking out sunlight (as in 1816, the Year Without A Summer), a coronal mass ejection damaging the world's electrical systems (as in 1859, the 'Carrington Event'), a huge asteroid hitting somewhere heavily populated (as in 1908, except luckily in Siberia) or the long feared 'Big One' earthquake hitting California (as in 1906, and now overdue). We have no control over the timing of any of these events, and any would be enough to imprint a permanent negative association on the year in which they look place.
The threat of nuclear war is always with us, perhaps lower than it was during the Cold War or perhaps higher now the offending weapons are in many more hands. World War 3 would be an event of such significance that the year in which it happened would outrank all others, assuming anyone was still around to remember it, at the very least irrevocably worsening the lives of everyone left on the planet.
If you ever need cheering up, don't read Wikipedia's page of Global catastrophe scenarios. These include a super-intelligent AI annihilating humanity, a bioengineered organism unbalancing the environment, a huge cyberattack destroying fundamental systems the world relies on, worldwide agricultural collapse, the seventh mass extinction, and of course the perennial Hollywood obsession of an alien species intent on conquest or eradication. Another glum scenario is unrecoverable dystopia, an eternity of global totalitarianism brought about by an unfortunate turn of political events. All might be unlikely, but even highly unlikely events sometimes happen and we'd never come back from any of these.
A 'bad year' doesn't require societal collapse or environmental catastrophe, merely something grim that resonates. But bad years will inevitably arrive and as yet we have no idea how many or when.
One day we'll know whether 2041 is a year to remember or a year to forget, ditto 2028, 2065 and all the others. In the meantime enjoy 2023 for what it is, a respite from calamity... assuming we can get through the last five months unscathed.
