diamond geezer

 Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Some weeks are consequential.
Here comes a consequential week.

a) Today is the Budget.

It's the first Labour budget since 2010 and the first to be delivered by a female Chancellor. What's consequential about this budget is that it marks a complete shift in direction from "what everybody wants is lower taxes" to "if we want to improve services we're going to have to put taxes up". It is thus unlikely to be popular with those who focus on what they spend and popular with those who focus on what they receive. It's also much easier to moan about increases that affect you directly than to appreciate long-term benefits which may only help others, especially when for a decade and a half the emphasis has been the other way round.

This budget also feels like it's been coming for ages, the General Election being 17 weeks ago, but it takes time to check the nation's finances, develop a plan and balance strategic gains with individual pain. There has thus been endless speculation about what measures will be included and which won't, often based on worst-case scenarios, plus strategic pre-leakage of individual policies. Time was when a Budget came as a complete surprise to all, a big bang of news with instant fallout, but these days it seems the blow has to be endlessly softened by rolling the pitch in advance. I for one am tired of hearing about how awful something that hasn't yet been announced might be, but we seem to have had weeks of it.

Here are the Chancellor's big five policies (a list I won't be populating until this afternoon because we don't know what they are yet)





These are likely to set the tone for Labour's period in government, the first policies that truly define important spending priorities and who's going to pay for them. The individual measures are likely to have been forgotten by the time the next election comes round but the gist will linger, and it's important whether more people think "this is helping" than "that's me screwed financially". Get it right today and people might see sunlit uplands, get it wrong and they'll only feel hard done by, and the consequences of that could be significant.
b) In three days' time the Conservative's new leader is announced.

On the face of it who cares? The party's in the wilderness with minimal MPs, the Conservative brand remains trashed in the national psyche and the two remaining candidates are considerably more right wing than the country they one day hope to lead. But there's the consequential thing, that the country will one day choose to ditch Labour in favour of 'change', and it's winner takes all for whoever's in charge when the music stops.

BallotWatch #newToryleader

Kemi Badenoch [renewal2030.org.uk] (1-6 fav)
» "This is an existential moment, it’s time to go bold, it’s time to renew", says Kemi.
» "Could start a fight in an empty room", say critics.

Robert Jenrick [joinjenrick.com] (6-1)
» "Leave the ECHR, cap migration and win the next election", says Robert.
» "Will say and do anything if it improves his standing", say critics.

Tory MPs perhaps blew it by failing to select James Cleverly, but the party membership likely wouldn't have voted for him even if they had. Instead they get to pick between the identity politics warrior and the isolationalist flagwaver, with all the indications being that Kemi will walk it. Will she end up a footnote to history like Hague and Howard or are we destined to live in her no-nonsense anti-woke fiefdom one day, because that'd be truly consequential.
c) In six days' time the next American president is elected.

It could be Vice President Kamala Harris, now that Joe Biden has sensibly stood aside, or it could be the return of former president Donald Trump. From this side of the Atlantic it seems astonishing that Americans might vote for the criminal narcissist bully, let alone vote for him again, but never underestimate the attraction of demagogy, hope and change. Also never forget the vagaries of the presidential voting system which mean you can easily win the popular vote but still lose out in the electoral college (as indeed is currently predicted). Let's see how the key marginal states are looking one week out from the big vote, according to the site fivethirtyeight.
Leaning Harris: -
Toss-up: Wisconsin (10 EVs), Nevada (6 EV), Pennsylvania (19 EV), Michigan (15 EV), North Carolina (16 EV)
Leaning Trump: Georgia (16 EV), Arizona (11 EV)
If Trump wins he's more prepared this time with a playbook of ultra-conservative policies ready to go. He'll trash stuff, drill stuff, destabilise stuff and spout scary gibberish that'll monopolise the world's attention for the next four years. He likely gets to top up the Supreme Court and lock out the liberals for a generation, consigning Roe v Wade to oblivion. Expect him to walk away from Europe and abandon Ukraine to defeat, and who knows what he'll lob into the Middle East. As for climate change he doesn't give a damn and there's every chance he'll help condemn the entire world to a miserable future, not just the USA. A whole range of alternative futures splay out from next week, from slow decline to irreversible dystopia.

It might not be that bad because we got through four years last time, somehow, and let's not forget Trump may not win anyway. But this week is a hugely consequential week and this time we can only watch.


click for Older Posts >>


click to return to the main page


...or read more in my monthly archives
Jan24  Feb24  Mar24  Apr24  May24  Jun24  Jul24  Aug24  Sep24  Oct24
Jan23  Feb23  Mar23  Apr23  May23  Jun23  Jul23  Aug23  Sep23  Oct23  Nov23  Dec23
Jan22  Feb22  Mar22  Apr22  May22  Jun22  Jul22  Aug22  Sep22  Oct22  Nov22  Dec22
Jan21  Feb21  Mar21  Apr21  May21  Jun21  Jul21  Aug21  Sep21  Oct21  Nov21  Dec21
Jan20  Feb20  Mar20  Apr20  May20  Jun20  Jul20  Aug20  Sep20  Oct20  Nov20  Dec20
Jan19  Feb19  Mar19  Apr19  May19  Jun19  Jul19  Aug19  Sep19  Oct19  Nov19  Dec19
Jan18  Feb18  Mar18  Apr18  May18  Jun18  Jul18  Aug18  Sep18  Oct18  Nov18  Dec18
Jan17  Feb17  Mar17  Apr17  May17  Jun17  Jul17  Aug17  Sep17  Oct17  Nov17  Dec17
Jan16  Feb16  Mar16  Apr16  May16  Jun16  Jul16  Aug16  Sep16  Oct16  Nov16  Dec16
Jan15  Feb15  Mar15  Apr15  May15  Jun15  Jul15  Aug15  Sep15  Oct15  Nov15  Dec15
Jan14  Feb14  Mar14  Apr14  May14  Jun14  Jul14  Aug14  Sep14  Oct14  Nov14  Dec14
Jan13  Feb13  Mar13  Apr13  May13  Jun13  Jul13  Aug13  Sep13  Oct13  Nov13  Dec13
Jan12  Feb12  Mar12  Apr12  May12  Jun12  Jul12  Aug12  Sep12  Oct12  Nov12  Dec12
Jan11  Feb11  Mar11  Apr11  May11  Jun11  Jul11  Aug11  Sep11  Oct11  Nov11  Dec11
Jan10  Feb10  Mar10  Apr10  May10  Jun10  Jul10  Aug10  Sep10  Oct10  Nov10  Dec10 
Jan09  Feb09  Mar09  Apr09  May09  Jun09  Jul09  Aug09  Sep09  Oct09  Nov09  Dec09
Jan08  Feb08  Mar08  Apr08  May08  Jun08  Jul08  Aug08  Sep08  Oct08  Nov08  Dec08
Jan07  Feb07  Mar07  Apr07  May07  Jun07  Jul07  Aug07  Sep07  Oct07  Nov07  Dec07
Jan06  Feb06  Mar06  Apr06  May06  Jun06  Jul06  Aug06  Sep06  Oct06  Nov06  Dec06
Jan05  Feb05  Mar05  Apr05  May05  Jun05  Jul05  Aug05  Sep05  Oct05  Nov05  Dec05
Jan04  Feb04  Mar04  Apr04  May04  Jun04  Jul04  Aug04  Sep04  Oct04  Nov04  Dec04
Jan03  Feb03  Mar03  Apr03  May03  Jun03  Jul03  Aug03  Sep03  Oct03  Nov03  Dec03
 Jan02  Feb02  Mar02  Apr02  May02  Jun02  Jul02 Aug02  Sep02  Oct02  Nov02  Dec02 

jack of diamonds
Life viewed from London E3

» email me
» follow me on twitter
» follow the blog on Twitter
» follow the blog on RSS

» my flickr photostream

twenty blogs
our bow
arseblog
ian visits
londonist
broken tv
blue witch
on london
the great wen
edith's streets
spitalfields life
linkmachinego
round the island
wanstead meteo
christopher fowler
the greenwich wire
bus and train user
ruth's coastal walk
round the rails we go
london reconnections
from the murky depths

quick reference features
Things to do in Outer London
Things to do outside London
London's waymarked walks
Inner London toilet map
20 years of blog series
The DG Tour of Britain
London's most...

read the archive
Oct24  Sep24
Aug24  Jul24  Jun24  May24
Apr24  Mar24  Feb24  Jan24
Dec23  Nov23  Oct23  Sep23
Aug23  Jul23  Jun23  May23
Apr23  Mar23  Feb23  Jan23
Dec22  Nov22  Oct22  Sep22
Aug22  Jul22  Jun22  May22
Apr22  Mar22  Feb22  Jan22
Dec21  Nov21  Oct21  Sep21
Aug21  Jul21  Jun21  May21
Apr21  Mar21  Feb21  Jan21
Dec20  Nov20  Oct20  Sep20
Aug20  Jul20  Jun20  May20
Apr20  Mar20  Feb20  Jan20
Dec19  Nov19  Oct19  Sep19
Aug19  Jul19  Jun19  May19
Apr19  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19
Dec18  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18
Aug18  Jul18  Jun18  May18
Apr18  Mar18  Feb18  Jan18
Dec17  Nov17  Oct17  Sep17
Aug17  Jul17  Jun17  May17
Apr17  Mar17  Feb17  Jan17
Dec16  Nov16  Oct16  Sep16
Aug16  Jul16  Jun16  May16
Apr16  Mar16  Feb16  Jan16
Dec15  Nov15  Oct15  Sep15
Aug15  Jul15  Jun15  May15
Apr15  Mar15  Feb15  Jan15
Dec14  Nov14  Oct14  Sep14
Aug14  Jul14  Jun14  May14
Apr14  Mar14  Feb14  Jan14
Dec13  Nov13  Oct13  Sep13
Aug13  Jul13  Jun13  May13
Apr13  Mar13  Feb13  Jan13
Dec12  Nov12  Oct12  Sep12
Aug12  Jul12  Jun12  May12
Apr12  Mar12  Feb12  Jan12
Dec11  Nov11  Oct11  Sep11
Aug11  Jul11  Jun11  May11
Apr11  Mar11  Feb11  Jan11
Dec10  Nov10  Oct10  Sep10
Aug10  Jul10  Jun10  May10
Apr10  Mar10  Feb10  Jan10
Dec09  Nov09  Oct09  Sep09
Aug09  Jul09  Jun09  May09
Apr09  Mar09  Feb09  Jan09
Dec08  Nov08  Oct08  Sep08
Aug08  Jul08  Jun08  May08
Apr08  Mar08  Feb08  Jan08
Dec07  Nov07  Oct07  Sep07
Aug07  Jul07  Jun07  May07
Apr07  Mar07  Feb07  Jan07
Dec06  Nov06  Oct06  Sep06
Aug06  Jul06  Jun06  May06
Apr06  Mar06  Feb06  Jan06
Dec05  Nov05  Oct05  Sep05
Aug05  Jul05  Jun05  May05
Apr05  Mar05  Feb05  Jan05
Dec04  Nov04  Oct04  Sep04
Aug04  Jul04  Jun04  May04
Apr04  Mar04  Feb04  Jan04
Dec03  Nov03  Oct03  Sep03
Aug03  Jul03  Jun03  May03
Apr03  Mar03  Feb03  Jan03
Dec02  Nov02  Oct02  Sep02
back to main page

the diamond geezer index
2023 2022
2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
2006 2005 2004 2003 2002

my special London features
a-z of london museums
E3 - local history month
greenwich meridian (N)
greenwich meridian (S)
the real eastenders
london's lost rivers
olympic park 2007
great british roads
oranges & lemons
random boroughs
bow road station
high street 2012
river westbourne
trafalgar square
capital numbers
east london line
lea valley walk
olympics 2005
regent's canal
square routes
silver jubilee
unlost rivers
cube routes
Herbert Dip
metro-land
capital ring
river fleet
piccadilly
bakerloo

ten of my favourite posts
the seven ages of blog
my new Z470xi mobile
five equations of blog
the dome of doom
chemical attraction
quality & risk
london 2102
single life
boredom
april fool

ten sets of lovely photos
my "most interesting" photos
london 2012 olympic zone
harris and the hebrides
betjeman's metro-land
marking the meridian
tracing the river fleet
london's lost rivers
inside the gherkin
seven sisters
iceland

just surfed in?
here's where to find...
diamond geezers
flash mob #1  #2  #3  #4
ben schott's miscellany
london underground
watch with mother
cigarette warnings
digital time delay
wheelie suitcases
war of the worlds
transit of venus
top of the pops
old buckenham
ladybird books
acorn antiques
digital watches
outer hebrides
olympics 2012
school dinners
pet shop boys
west wycombe
bletchley park
george orwell
big breakfast
clapton pond
san francisco
thunderbirds
routemaster
children's tv
east enders
trunk roads
amsterdam
little britain
credit cards
jury service
big brother
jubilee line
number 1s
titan arum
typewriters
doctor who
coronation
comments
blue peter
matchgirls
hurricanes
buzzwords
brookside
monopoly
peter pan
starbucks
feng shui
leap year
manbags
bbc three
vision on
piccadilly
meridian
concorde
wembley
islington
ID cards
bedtime
freeview
beckton
blogads
eclipses
letraset
arsenal
sitcoms
gherkin
calories
everest
muffins
sudoku
camilla
london
ceefax
robbie
becks
dome
BBC2
paris
lotto
118
itv