Some weeks are consequential.
Here comes a consequential week.
a) Today is the Budget.
It's the first Labour budget since 2010 and the first to be delivered by a female Chancellor. What's consequential about this budget is that it marks a complete shift in direction from "what everybody wants is lower taxes" to "if we want to improve services we're going to have to put taxes up". It is thus unlikely to be popular with those who focus on what they spend and popular with those who focus on what they receive. It's also much easier to moan about increases that affect you directly than to appreciate long-term benefits which may only help others, especially when for a decade and a half the emphasis has been the other way round.
This budget also feels like it's been coming for ages, the General Election being 17 weeks ago, but it takes time to check the nation's finances, develop a plan and balance strategic gains with individual pain. There has thus been endless speculation about what measures will be included and which won't, often based on worst-case scenarios, plus strategic pre-leakage of individual policies. Time was when a Budget came as a complete surprise to all, a big bang of news with instant fallout, but these days it seems the blow has to be endlessly softened by rolling the pitch in advance. I for one am tired of hearing about how awful something that hasn't yet been announced might be, but we seem to have had weeks of it.
Here are the Chancellor's big six policies (a list I won't be populating until this afternoon because we don't know what they are yet)
• Employer NI contributions ↑1.2% (& thresholds raised)
• National Living Wage ↑6.7%
• Capital Gains Tax increased
• VAT on private school fees
• No increase to Income Tax, NI, VAT or fuel duty
• £25bn increase to spending on the NHS
These are likely to set the tone for Labour's period in government, the first policies that truly define important spending priorities and who's going to pay for them. The individual measures are likely to have been forgotten by the time the next election comes round but the gist will linger, and it's important whether more people think "this is helping" than "that's me screwed financially". Get it right today and people might see sunlit uplands, get it wrong and they'll only feel hard done by, and the consequences of that could be significant.
b) In three days' time the Conservative's new leader is announced.
On the face of it who cares? The party's in the wilderness with minimal MPs, the Conservative brand remains trashed in the national psyche and the two remaining candidates are considerably more right wing than the country they one day hope to lead. But there's the consequential thing, that the country will one day choose to ditch Labour in favour of 'change', and it's winner takes all for whoever's in charge when the music stops.
BallotWatch #newToryleader
Kemi Badenoch[renewal2030.org.uk](1-6 fav)
» "This is an existential moment, it’s time to go bold, it’s time to renew", says Kemi.
» "Could start a fight in an empty room", say critics.
Robert Jenrick[joinjenrick.com](6-1)
» "Leave the ECHR, cap migration and win the next election", says Robert.
» "Will say and do anything if it improves his standing", say critics.
Tory MPs perhaps blew it by failing to select James Cleverly, but the party membership likely wouldn't have voted for him even if they had. Instead they get to pick between the identity politics warrior and the isolationalist flagwaver, with all the indications being that Kemi will walk it. Will she end up a footnote to history like Hague and Howard or are we destined to live in her no-nonsense anti-woke fiefdom one day, because that'd be truly consequential.
c) In six days' time the next American president is elected.
It could be Vice President Kamala Harris, now that Joe Biden has sensibly stood aside, or it could be the return of former president Donald Trump. From this side of the Atlantic it seems astonishing that Americans might vote for the criminal narcissist bully, let alone vote for him again, but never underestimate the attraction of demagogy, hope and change. Also never forget the vagaries of the presidential voting system which mean you can easily win the popular vote but still lose out in the electoral college (as indeed is currently predicted). Let's see how the key marginal states are looking one week out from the big vote, according to the site fivethirtyeight.
If Trump wins he's more prepared this time with a playbook of ultra-conservative policies ready to go. He'll trash stuff, drill stuff, destabilise stuff and spout scary gibberish that'll monopolise the world's attention for the next four years. He likely gets to top up the Supreme Court and lock out the liberals for a generation, consigning Roe v Wade to permanent oblivion. Expect him to walk away from Europe and abandon Ukraine to defeat, and who knows what he'll lob into the Middle East. As for climate change he doesn't give a damn and there's every chance he'll help condemn the entire world to a miserable future, not just the USA. A whole range of alternative futures splay out from next week, from slow decline to irreversible dystopia.
It might not be that bad because we got through four years last time, somehow, and let's not forget Trump may not win anyway. But this week is a hugely consequential week and this time we can only watch.
