Next month's General Election will define the future for a generation or leave us trapped in political stalemate, depending. How the nation votes is crucial.
But my vote isn't. I live in one of the safest constituencies in the country which is going to return a Labour MP no matter what. Other than a brief aberration when George Galloway got in instead, Bethnal Green and Bow's Labour candidate has always polled more than twice as many votes as their nearest contender. And we're by no means London's only one horse race.
This map shows the constituencies in which the winning candidate at the last General Election polled over 70% of the vote.
16 of London's 73 constituencies fall into this category, that's just over 20%. Most lie within an East End/Lea Valley cluster, plus others in Ealing, Brent, Southwark, Lewisham and Croydon. All 17 are Labour held. In the three constituencies of East Ham, Tottenham and Walthamstow the percentage was actually over 80%. Other parties won't be wasting their time bringing in their big names to campaign here.
Across the whole of the UK there are 37 constituencies in which the winning candidate polled over 70% of the vote. Almost half of them are in London. Of the others, nine are in Liverpool, four in Manchester and three in Birmingham. Leeds, Leicester, Nottingham, Runcorn and Sheffield have one each. Again all are Labour held. The highest Conservative share of the vote was 69.9%, in South Holland and the Deepings in southeast Lincolnshire.
This map shows the constituencies in which the winning candidate at the last General Election polled over 60% of the vote.
36 of London's 73 constituencies fall into this category, that's roughly half. The Labour zone includes a solid northeastern block, a broad swathe of the inner southeast and an outer western band. Three Conservative constituencies also feature, each along the eastern edge of the capital. It's not inconceivable for these 36 constituencies to change hands at the forthcoming election, but each party starts off with over 60% of the vote so they probably won't.
Across the whole of the UK there are 204 constituencies in which the winning candidate polled over 60% of the vote. That's about 30% of the national total. Just over half of these constituencies returned a Labour MP and just under half returned a Conservative. London has a higher proportion of these safe seats than the wider population.
This map shows the constituencies in which the winning candidate at the last General Election polled less than half of the vote.
There are only 13 London constituencies in this category, one sixth of the overall total. Most are in outer London. Most are Conservative held. In Harrow and Barnet Labour are the main challenger, while in southwest London it's the Liberal Democrats. These are the constituencies the campaign will target, with their soft sub-5000 majorities, where every vote does potentially count. It's worth noting that Boris Johnson's constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip is very nearly one of them, he polled 50.8%.
Across the whole of the UK there are 172 constituencies in which the winning candidate polled less than half of the vote. That's about a quarter of the national total. These are the constituencies in which the winning candidate could have been beaten if everybody else had voted tactically. All but two of the constituencies in Scotland fall into this category. If you live in one of these potential marginals, all the might of the campaign and the corresponding advertising spend is focused on you.
The upcoming election is volatile enough that some parties may do a lot worse, or a lot better, than last time round. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. But I live in a 72% Labour constituency where my vote is technically irrelevant. The rest of you, for God's sake don't fcuk it up.
