One of the most overused phrases on this blog is "until it was interrupted by WW2".
"WW2 stalled construction by almost three decades"
"war brought trading to a sudden close and the market never reopened"
"when the station finally opened after the war"
So many grand plans of the 1930s were seriously delayed, or snuffed out, by the outbreak of war and the associated economic shock. Central line extensions to West Ruislip and Hainault were paused in 1940 and didn't open until 1948, for example, while the Northern Heights programme on the Northern line was cancelled. Waterloo Bridge's rebuild stalled. The suburbs stopped spreading.
Is London about to face a similar abandonment of major projects as a result of coronavirus?
Seismic economic shifts will force companies, organisations and local government to focus on retaining what they have, not building new. Significant job losses will reduce overall consumer spending. A switch to working from home could transform transport demand. A lot of the "nice to have"s lined up for future years will become "can't be afforded"s.
So what might survive, if somewhat delayed, and which projects' futures hang in the balance?
Mega-projects
• Heathrow's third runway was already under threat after being ruled illegal over climate change issues. With the aviation industry on the backfoot and a potential slump in demand for global travel, it may no longer be sustainable, or required.
• The Tideway super sewer beneath the Thames is far enough advanced that it will eventually link through.
• Crossrail may not hit its revised summer 2021 deadline, but the vast majority of its budget is spent and it will be completed. It will however boost London's rail capacity by 10% at a time when passenger numbers may be significantly contracting.
• Crossrail 2 is another matter. The Mayor once described it as essential for London's future, but that was before London's future changed, and the massive capital investment required may no longer be available.
• High Speed 2's survival will be a purely political issue. Already hugely controversial, a world in which business meetings can be completed perfectly satisfactorily over Zoom would otherwise kill it off.
• Old Oak Common was expected to be this decade's largest redevelopment hub. Should investment and rail connections fail, it may never happen.
Thames Crossings
• Hammersmith Bridge may not get rebuilt.
• The Battersea/Fulham and Nine Elms/Pimlico footbridges are firmly on the "could be done without" list.
• The Rotherhithe to Canary Wharf ferry for cyclists and pedestrians is unlikely to be a future priority.
• The Silvertown Tunnel has been embroiled in controversy for years, and always seems to be on the brink of construction work maybe starting soon. Because it hasn't yet, and because environmental issues are now even harder to discount, this would be an easy budget-saving cancellation.
• The Lower Thames Crossing, skirting Tilbury and Gravesend, ended its consultation period a couple of weeks ago and was about to enter a final design phase. Cancellation could mean longer queues on the Dartford Crossing but £6bn saved.
Rail extensions
• The Northern Line extension to Battersea Power Station, for what it's worth, may still be on track for completion next year.
• The Barking Riverside extension is rather further behind, with viaducts and terminus as yet incomplete. The new station is deemed critical for the construction of ten thousand homes on the adjacent brownfield site, assuming new housing is still a priority in a depressed market.
• The Bakerloo Line Extension is still at the consultation stage and in desperate need of a funding agreement, so even the current plan for services to start operating "from the mid-2030s" might be wildly optimistic.
• Thamesmead's best hope of a direct rail connection is currently a DLR extension, but I wouldn't bet on it.
• It had been mooted that Crossrail might one day extend into Kent. Dream on.
Other tube plans
• The Four Lines Modernisation signalling programme will eventually be completed.
• Bank station will get its capacity boost.
• The rebuiilding of Camden Town and Holborn stations might now be less likely.
• South Kensington might not get its ground level makeover.
• The introduction of new trains on the Piccadilly line is probably further away than ever.
• The Bakerloo's older rolling stock may have to struggle on.
• If you don't have the Night Tube yet, don't expect it soon.
Other transport projects
• Several extra cycleways are in the pipeline across the capital. Will they be given priority now cycling is a healthier way to get around than cramming onto the tube?
• London's Ultra Low Emission Zone is due to be extended next year... and yet we currently live in a world where the Congestion Charge has been suspended and air pollution has dramatically improved. It's all up for grabs.
• TfL launched 4G on the Jubilee line less than a week before lockdown started, so haven't been able to make a song and dance about it. What chance underground wifi being rolled out elsewhere as planned?
• The Sutton Link, a proposed tram connection from Colliers Wood to Sutton, seems highly unlikely to go ahead.
• On-demand bus trials in Sutton and Ealing were suspended last month and probably won't restart.
• Extra stations at New Bermondsey and Beam Park will be at the back of the funding queue.
TfL expect to run out of ready money before the end of next month, hit by the perfect storm of running an essential service hardly anybody's using and even fewer are paying for. Even when lockdown's eased we won't be rushing back into overcrowded buses and tubes, the environmental challenge being to keep people out of their much safer cars. International travel is likely to remain depressed for some time, crushing tourism's contribution to London's economy. Leisure travel to pubs, restaurants and cinemas will be among the last things to return. But these are medium-term issues, and today's post is very much about longer term investment.
One of the most overused phrases on this blog may soon be "until it was interrupted by coronavirus". Expect those projects that survive to be those focusing on realistic consolidation rather than optimistic expansion.
