TfL's annual fare rise was announced yesterday. It's extremely late, indeed this is the second time the increase that normally happens at the start of January has been delayed until the start of March, but that's government negotiations for you.
Sadiq froze fares for four years before the pandemic but has been forced to raise fares by 1% above inflation since, so that's 2.6% last year and 4.8% this.
To put that in context, fares rose 7% in 2011, 7% in 2012, 3% in 2014, 2.5% in 2015 and 1% in 2016, because some Mayors are happy to put fares up and some aren't.
Here are some of the new fares in historical perspective, with Boris's years in blue and Sadiq's in red.
Cost of a single central London tube journey
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
PAYG
£2.00
£2.10
£2.20
£2.30
£2.40
£2.40
£2.40
£2.40
£2.40
£2.40
£2.50
After six years at £2.40 the Zone 1 PAYG tube fare rises by 10p. Last year it was deliberately left unchanged "to support the wider economic recovery of London", something that the centre of town still desperately needs, but a small increase this year shouldn't frighten too many away. Thanks to a longstanding quirk of the system peak and off-peak Z1 fares remain the same. Fare rise 2012→2022: 25% Fare rise 2021→2022: 4%
Cost of a tube journey from Green Park to Heathrow
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Peak
£4.80
£5.00
£5.00
£5.10
£5.10
£5.10
£5.10
£5.10
£5.10
£5.30
£5.50
Off peak
£2.90
£3.00
£3.00
£3.10
£3.10
£3.10
£3.10
£3.10
£3.10
£3.30
£3.50
The Z1-6 fare resumes its steady climb after seven years when it rose by only 10p. It means taking the Piccadilly line to Heathrow will cost £5.50 (peak) or £3.50 (offpeak), which is still a bargain given that TfL Rail/Crossrail fares will be £11.50 and £10.80 respectively. But ongoing negotiations with government might see peak fares imposed all day, the Mayor has signalled, reducing the price differential from ×3 to ×2. Tourists will pay the extra whatever, he reasons.
Fare rise 2012→2022: 21% Fare rise 2021→2022: 6%
For many years all off-peak tube journeys in Z2-6 cost £1.50. Last year the Mayor disrupted that by making longer journeys cost more, and this year he distorts the scale again.
Tube (off-peak), journey does not include Z1
1 zone
was £1.50, will be £1.60
2 zones
was £1.60, will be £1.70
3 zones
was £1.70, will be £1.80
4 or 5 zones
was £1.70, will be £1.90
The big hit is to those making a suburban journey across four or five zones who'll see a 12% increase on top of a 13% increase last year. The excuse given in the press release is to bring tube fares "in line with nearby National Rail fares", which I fear is a rationale we'll hear more often in the future. It's by far the largest percentage increase in the tube fares package and bad news for Londoners who make regular off-peak journeys across the suburbs, so not something the Mayor will be broadcasting loudly.
Cost of a single central London bus journey
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
PAYG
£1.30
£1.35
£1.40
£1.45
£1.50
£1.50
£1.50
£1.50
£1.50
£1.55
£1.65
TfL are often kinder to bus passengers because they include the poorest amongst the electorate, but not this year. This is the first 10p fare hike since 2012, a 6½% increase which the Mayor is keen to blame on the government.
Basically the Mayor is saying "I have no control over rail fares, which are rising less than tube fares, so I need to screw bus users to balance the books." The Hopper fare remains, so chains of longer bus journeys will still cost the same as a single ride. Those impacted by the increase should note that a one zone tube ride (e.g Whitechapel to Stratford) continues to be 5p cheaper than taking the bus. Fare rise 2012→2022: 27% Fare rise 2021→2022: 6½%
Cost of an annual Z1-3 Travelcard
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
£1368
£1424
£1472
£1508
£1520
£1548
£1600
£1648
£1696
£1740
£1808
No matter what the Mayor decides, Travelcards rise in price in line with National Rail fares which are set by the government, usually one percent ahead of inflation. But this year the government has scrapped the +1% to be kind to rail travellers, whilst simultaneously forcing TfL to add it on. That means this year's increase for Travelcards (and weekly capping) is 3.8%, i.e. a better deal than PAYG tube users are getting, although it only marginally makes up for previous disparities.
Fare rise 2012→2022: 32% Fare rise 2021→2022: 4%
Finally to the means of transport seeing the sharpest fare increase.
Cost of a single Dangle
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
PAYG
£3.20
£3.20
£3.30
£3.40
£3.50
£3.50
£3.50
£3.50
£3.50
£4.00
£5.00
Walk-up
£4.30
£4.30
£4.00
£4.40
£4.50
£4.50
£4.50
£4.50
£4.50
£5.00
£6.00
Cablecar fares climbed only slowly until last year, at which point the current Mayor decided to milk his predecessor's project. A 50p increase last year has been followed by a £1 increase this, boosting a return fare to at least £10, a price more reminiscent of a tourist attraction than a key connection. In percentage terms it's an annual increase of 25% for PAYG users and 20% for those who insist on paying at the terminal. The press release mischievously describes the increase as "an overall average of 9.2%", having taken into account child fares and add-on fripperies, but really it's a massive hike. Fare rise 2012→2022: 43% Fare rise 2021→2022: 25%
...and it leads to the ridiculous situation whereby it'll now be cheaper to cross the Thames by boat than by cablecar. Thames Clipper fares have always been on the expensive side - currently £4.60 for a journey within the East zone and about to rise to £4.80. But from 1st March the £5 Dangleway fare will exceed it by 20p, which is well worth knowing if you've got a bike and can't use the Jubilee line for £1.60.
So brace yourself because all these daily increases soon add up, and be prepared for a further increase on select journeys once Sadiq's arm-wrestling bout with the government is finished. Then brace yourself for 2023 because next year's increases will be based on the inflation rate in July which may be as high as 7%. Balancing the books when fewer people are travelling is a tough ask, and if the government won't help foot the bill then you and I are going to have to.
