The 2016 referendum split the country almost exactly down the middle, along a fault line which hadn't been tested before.
LEAVE
REMAIN
Unlike most political issues, positions are entrenched. It's obvious that the other side is wrong, and a second Leave/Remain referendum would likely split the country as before.
But now we have three options, and that's potentially even worse.
DEAL
NO DEAL
REMAIN
You can't offer a choice of three in a People's Vote, because none of the outcomes would command a majority.
So eventually the decision's going to have to come down to a choice of two, be that in government, in parliament or across the electorate.
And that's potentially worse still, because which option do you ditch?
DEAL
NO DEAL
If staying in the EU is off the table, the choice is between a fudged compromise and a cliff edge. Obviously one of those is hugely more sensible than the other, but it depends on who you are which one of those it is. In recent polling, offered this particular choice, a majority of those surveyed picked DEAL (because Remainers piled in with the least dramatic option).
NO DEAL
REMAIN
If a negotiated deal is off the table, the choice is between a cliff edge and the status quo. Obviously one of those is hugely more sensible than the other, but it depends on who you are which one of those it is. In recent polling, offered this particular choice, a majority of those surveyed picked NO DEAL (because the priority is to enact the result of the referendum).
REMAIN
DEAL
If exiting without a deal is off the table, the choice is between the status quo and a fudged compromise. Obviously one of those is hugely more sensible than the other, but it depends on who you are which one of those it is. In recent polling, offered this particular choice, a majority of those surveyed picked REMAIN (because Leavers found the Chequers sellout unpalatable).
So we have three options, each of which wins against one alternative but loses to the other.
It's like the political version of Rock Paper Scissors.
An impeccably balanced predicament.
Wherever we end up, and whoever's in charge when we do, it seems the perfect problem isn't going to go away.
