On the day of the 1971 Cup Final, at the ages of six and four, my brother and I took sides. He picked Liverpool and I picked Arsenal, a choice which meant I ended the afternoon much happier than him. The allegiance of a lifetime had been fixed.
This weekend saw the 50th Cup Final since that fateful day, and yet another victory for the fine team I fortuitously chose.
But did I make the optimum decision that Saturday, or is there a more successful football league club I should have chosen instead?
To find out I've undertaken an extensive analysis of English football statistics by adding half a century of data to a spreadsheet. I've assumed that England's most successful club must be in the Premier League at present, so have investigated just the current top 20 (which means I haven't included Leeds United but I have included Bournemouth). I'm also only interested in a team's record since lunchtime on 8th May 1971, so if you're older or younger than me my conclusions may not apply to you.
In terms of FA Cup Final Wins I couldn't have chosen better. Arsenal have won the trophy eleven times over the last 50 years, beating Manchester United with nine, Chelsea with seven and Liverpool with six. No other team has surpassed three. Arsenal and Manchester United share the honour of the most Cup Final appearances, at fifteen apiece, but Man Utd have lost more of theirs. It's also the case that Arsenal have reached at least the FA Cup semi-finals in 21 seasons out of 50, which is phenomenal. Meanwhile six of the current Premier League clubs have never made the FA Cup Final at all.
But football's about more than knockout silverware, so what about League Titles? Arsenal have topped the League five times since 1971, as have Chelsea, and a 10% success rate isn't bad. But two other teams completely dominate, namely Manchester United with 13 tabletoppers and Liverpool with 12. Between the pair of them the League's been won by a 'red' team' over half the time.
Extending the cut-off to Top Four Placings, because qualification for Europe keeps most fans happy, Liverpool take the crown. They've been in the top four an astonishing 36 times in 49 seasons, with Manchester United just behind with 33. Arsenal are next with 29, although 11 of these were fourth-in-the-table just-qualified-for-Europe slots. Meanwhile five of the teams in the Premier League have never had a top four placing, and another five (Crystal Palace, Leicester, Southampton, Watford and West Ham) have only managed it once.
So far that's one victory each for Arsenal (most Cup wins), Manchester United (most League titles) and Liverpool (most top 4 placings). It seems likely "England's most successful team" is one of these three.
To separate the teams more accurately I've decided to calculate the Average League Table Position since 1971. For example Norwich being top of the Championship at the end of last season counts as 21, because there were 20 teams above them, while Burnley's third-from-bottom in Division 4 in 1986/7 scores 90. I've listed these rankings for every year since 1971 and then found the mean position for each club. Calculated in this way Arsenal have an average end-of-season position of 5th in the table, which certainly sounds good. Here's how they compare to all the other current Premier League teams.
Average league position since 1971
Division One
Premiership Premier League
Division Two
Division One Championship
Division Three
Division Two League One
Division Four
Division Three
League Two
3rd Liverpool 5th Manchester United 5th Arsenal 9th Tottenham 9th Everton 11th Chelsea 13th Aston Villa 13th Manchester City 15th Newcastle 15th West Ham 17th Southampton
Liverpool have the best average League position since 1971 with a '3rd'. Technically it's only 3.3, but that's still astonishingly consistently excellent. Manchester United and Arsenal both manage 5th (with Man Utd's 4.8 marginally beating Arsenal's 4.9), after which come Tottenham and Everton with 9th. I had been expecting Chelsea and Manchester City to be higher, but the average takes account of the fact that neither were as successful in the 20th century as they've been in the 21st. Bournemouth meanwhile only appear halfway down the third tier, confirming that their current run of form is highly atypical. Liverpool, Arsenal and Everton haven't left the top division since 1971, whereas six of the current Premier League have spent some time in each of the four divisions.
For a better reflection of what being a football supporter's all about, how about Matches Won? For ease of calculation that's league victories only, not cup matches or other European diversions. I've added up all the wins since 1971 and can confirm that Manchester United take the crown with 1049, although Liverpool are only two behind on 1047 so this is very nearly a draw. Arsenal come third with 969 wins (then Chelsea, Manchester City, Sheffield Utd and Wolves). The majority of current Premier League teams have won between 720 and 820 matches since 1971, which is the equivalent of 15-17 days a year when fans went to bed happy.
The other thing which thrills a football fan is a ball in the back of the net, so I've totted up the number of League Goals Scored since 1971. This time it's Liverpool in the lead with 3351 goals, having leapfrogged Manchester United (3322) a couple of seasons ago. Arsenal are again third (with 3145), while Chelsea and Man City are the only other teams above 3000. But a goal is just as emotional an event whether it takes place in the first division or the fourth, which is how Watford (2898) come out ahead of Tottenham (2872), Burnley (2803) easily exceed Everton (2612) and almost everybody beats West Ham (2609).
To summarise...
Since 1971
1st
2nd
3rd
Cup Final Wins
Arsenal (11)
Man Utd (9)
Liverpool (6)
League Titles
Man Utd (13)
Liverpool (12)
Arsenal (5)
Top 4 Placings
Liverpool (36)
Man Utd (33)
Arsenal (29)
Average Position
Liverpool (3rd)
Man Utd (5th)
Arsenal (5th)
Matches Won
Man Utd (1049)
Liverpool (1047)
Arsenal (969)
Goals Scored
Liverpool (3351)
Man Utd (3322)
Arsenal (3145)
The same three teams appear in every row of the table, merely shuffled into a different order, confirming that Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United are indeed the premier English clubs of the last half century. But Arsenal are quite plainly third, alas, while Liverpool and Man Utd alternate in the top two positions. I note that Liverpool have three appearances in the first column to Man Utd's two so I'm awarding them the top prize, a status totally backed up by one further category... European Trophies, where it's Liverpool 9, Manchester United 4, Arsenal 1.
It turns out that my brother made the optimum decision in 1971, so has had the most reasons to be pleased with his team's performance over the last half century. The statistics say my choice of Arsenal was almost as good, certainly better than picking Tottenham, Watford or Leyton Orient, and in terms of FA Cup victories the very best choice possible.
But in terms of matches won or goals scored, which is the very bread and butter of football, it didn't really matter who I picked. Promotion and relegation ensure that most teams spend some years at the top of divisions doing well and other years at the bottom of divisions doing badly, so over the course of a lifetime things generally balance out. It's all about playing the long game, as I'm sure six year-old me understood perfectly well.
On the day of the 1971 Cup Final, at the ages of six and four, my brother and I took sides. He picked Liverpool and I picked Arsenal, a choice which meant I ended the afternoon much happier than him. The allegiance of a lifetime had been fixed.
