It's bad news for passengers on tubes and trains whose fares must increase by "inflation plus one per cent" (as agreed in the government Spending Review in July).
It's good news for passengers on buses and trams as fares are frozen (but only for four months after which presumably they'll increase).
What follows is my annual summary of TfL's fare rises, an analysis now in its 17thyear because having some historical perspective on this is important. I'll come back and update all this when the Mayor finally confesses all.
Sadiq would like to have frozen fares as he did in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2024, but the new government has forced his hand. We'll only help fund transport projects if you raise tube fares ahead of inflation, they said, so he has. Whitehall didn't specify anything about buses so he's left them unchanged, for now. tbc: The July inflation rate was 4.8% so inflation plus one is 5.8%, but we don't yet have the averaged-out fare rise for 2026.
Cost of a single central London tube journey
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Peak
£2.40
£2.40
£2.40
£2.40
£2.40
£2.40
£2.50
£2.80
£2.80
£2.90
£3.10
Off peak
£2.40
£2.40
£2.40
£2.40
£2.40
£2.40
£2.50
£2.70
£2.70
£2.80
£3.00
2026 sees another 20p on tube journeys around central London, the second largest increase of the Mayor's decade in charge. He's keen to emphasise "no single pay as you go Tube fare will increase by more than 20p", whereas I'd call this out as an above-inflation 7% increase. It's also a massive 29% increase since 2021, although also only a 29% increase since 2016 if you prefer to take a long term view. n.b. These are PAYG fares for Oyster or contactless users. No news yet on the cash fare.
Cost of a tube journey from Green Park to Heathrow
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Peak
£5.10
£5.10
£5.10
£5.10
£5.10
£5.30
£5.50
£5.60
£5.60
£5.80
£5.90
Off peak
£3.10
£3.10
£3.10
£3.10
£3.10
£3.30
£3.50
£5.60
£5.60
£5.80
£5.90
This year's rise is only 1.8% but follows a deliberate hike in September 2022 when the Mayor announced that travel from Z1 to Heathrow would always be charged at peak rates. This raised fares on the Piccadilly line by £2 to keep central government happy, raising revenue while not overly impacting on the daily life of Londoners. The tube fare from central London to Heathrow remains massively cheaper than the obscene £15.50 you'll face if you choose the convenience of Crossrail. n.b. The Mayor's press release states that "Elizabeth line fares from Zone 1 to Heathrow would rise from £13.90 to £15.50." I can't square this with the fact the fare is currently £12.80.
For travel to other stations in zone 6, not cash cow airports, the off-peak fare from zone 1 rises 20p to £4.00.
Here's where the financial pain is.
Off-peak fares outside zone 1
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
1 zone
£1.50
£1.50
£1.60
£1.80
£1.80
£2.00
£2.20
2 zones
£1.50
£1.60
£1.70
£1.90
£1.90
£2.10
£2.30
3 zones
£1.50
£1.70
£1.80
£1.90
£1.90
£2.20
£2.40
4 zones
£1.50
£1.70
£1.90
£2.00
£2.00
£2.30
£2.50
5 zones
£1.50
£1.70
£1.90
£2.10
£2.10
£2.40
£2.60
As recently as 2020 all off-peak tube journeys in zones 2-6 cost just £1.50. Since then TfL's accountants have been sequentially distorting the fare scale to better reflect distance travelled, and last year finally stretched each of the five fares to a different price point. Now the Mayor's whacking another 20p on.
What's worse is that each of these five fares is rising by far more than the 5.8% baseline. An extra 20p for every journey across 1 or 2 zones equates to an 10% increase (for example Stratford to Canary Wharf or Wembley Park to Harrow), while off-peak journeys across 3, 4 or 5 zones rise by 8-9%. The shortest suburban journeys will now cost 47% more than they did six years ago and the longest 73% more, increases that are both extortionate and deliberate.
The Mayor's press team must be delighted that nobody's noticed quite how much they've screwed the suburbs.
Cost of a London bus journey
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
£1.50
£1.50
£1.50
£1.50
£1.50
£1.55
£1.65
£1.75
£1.75
£1.75
£1.75
Bus fares, by contrast, see no increase at all.... for now. The Mayor is often kinder to bus passengers because they include the poorest amongst the electorate, so they'll continue to benefit from his prolonged fare freeze. The daily cap for bus journeys remains £5.25 (i.e. three single fares). We wait to see what'll happen in July when he either does or doesn't raise them properly.
National Rail fares aren't rising next year which means Travelcards will cost the same in 2026 as in 2025. That's excellent, but it's thanks to government intervention rather than Mayoral input.
Cost of an annual Z1-3 Travelcard
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
£1520
£1548
£1600
£1648
£1696
£1740
£1808
£1916
£2008
£2100
£2100
As a result all daily/weekly caps for tube and rail journeys will also be frozen. For example travelling within zones 1-3 all day will still cost no more than £10.50. This may also mean, if you swan around London enough, that any fare rises on your individual journeys will be absorbed within the static cap.
No news yet on the cablecar.
Cost of a single Dangle
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
£3.50
£3.50
£3.50
£3.50
£3.50
£4.00
£5.00
£6.00
£6.00
£7.00
tbc
It all starts in March with an increase in train fares, then a sneakier rise in bus fares in July which the Mayor can currently describe as a freeze. There's never been a year like it, and it isn't good but it could have been a lot worse.
