Earlier this week TfL launched its latest Business Plan setting out what it hopes to achieve over the next four years. The last time they published a four-year Business Plan was nine years ago, the hiatus because intermediate governments weren't willing to agree a long-term funding deal. Now we can finally look forward to the near future with a reasonable degree of certainty, at least for now.
According to the Mayor, these are the TfL highlights for 2026-2030.
• New affordable housing and jobs with the DLR extension to Beckton Riverside and Thamesmead
• Modernising the Tube
• Cutting congestion
• Improving safety and accessibility
• High-quality walking and cycling infrastructure
• Eliminating road death and serious injury
The first of those won't be done by 2030, sorry. A lot of these are just "we're going to make things safer", which I'd hope is always the case. A lot of what's in the plan is 'things intended to happen in early 2026' because predicting the immediate future is easier than long-term. Also almost all of it is 'things already announced' so don't expect fresh wows. What we're really getting here is intent and aspiration, not certainty and assurance, so a lot of "we will move towards" and "work progressing" which could ultimately mean nothing.
I've been through the 69 page document to see what Londoners can look forward to. In the summary that follows I've missed out anything due to complete in 2026, also anything I consider a bit dull.
Milestones
» 20,000 homes "in the pipeline"
» 6000 zero-emission buses
» 3500 traffic signals with bus priority
» 100% of electricity from renewable sources
» 95km of additional cycle routes
» 265 new pedestrian crossings
By 2030
» 40% of Londoners to live within 400m of the strategic cycle network (currently 29%)
» Fare evasion at 1.5% or less (currently 3.5%)
» Contribution of fares to TfL's income expected to rise from 51% to 59%.
Bus
» Introduce Superloop services SL13, SL14 and SL15 in 2027
» Introduce bus priority corridor between Woolwich and Abbey Wood (via Thamesmead) by 2029
» Progress a new publicly owned bus company for London
Fares
» "Explore how fares innovation could provide even greater value for customers with loyalty and reward schemes"
Stations
» Start work on DLR extension to Thamesmead in 2027 (but won't open before the early 2030s)
» Complete new entrance at Elephant & Castle by 2028
» Add six new escalators at Pontoon Dock by 2028
» Step-free access at Leyton in spring 2027 (no further stations confirmed after this)
» "Progress work" at Surrey Canal (i.e. the usual bugger all)
Woolly train stuff
» "Make the case for" the West London Orbital project, the Bakerloo line extension and Crossrail 2
» Aspire to absorb Great Northern suburban rail route into the Overground (Moorgate → Welwyn Garden City and Stevenage via Hertford North)
Rolling stock
» New train fleet introduced on the Piccadilly line (the first train "within the next 12 months")
» New train fleet introduced on the DLR (first three trains already withdrawn from service awaiting supply chain solution)
» Introduce fleet of 24 new trams (with the potential to replace all 36)
» Introduce 10 new Elizabeth line trains to increase frequency in central and west London
» Complete overhaul of entire Central line fleet by 2029 (only three so far)
» Complete signalling upgrades on Metropolitan and District line (project began 2016)
Oh god no
» "Introduce next-generation corridor wraps on the Elizabeth line and a dramatic revamp of Waterloo station’s travelator to deliver high-impact, contextually relevant creatives that immerse and inspire Londoners as they move through the city"
My main takeaway from scouring the document is that the next four years are going to be a bit dull. We get new fleets of trains on the Piccadilly line and DLR, but all later than originally anticipated. We get nice improvements here and there but no new completed infrastructure, only an underwhelming DLR extension not yet in operation by 2030. What's more in 2029 Britain is likely to elect a London-hating government that seeks to yank all TfL's aspirations into reverse, so make the most of this lacklustre set of priorities because it's as good as we're going to get.
