It's a bit nippy for October, with an Arctic blast expected to keep temperatures in single figures throughout the day. But how normal is this? When does autumn's first cold spell usually kick in?
In meteorology, there is no such thing as normal. But what I can do is look back at recent autumns to see when the first chilly day arrived. Specifically I've checked back through every year since 2010, using data from Hampstead, to find the first autumn day with a maximum temperature below 10.0°C.
2010: 20th Oct 2011: 16th Nov 2012: 26th Oct 2013: 4th Nov 2014: 17th Nov 2015: 20th Nov 2016: 2nd Nov 2017: 5th Nov
The earliest date in the list is 20th October and the latest is 20th November. In statistical terms it's usually good to remove outliers, so let's cut those two, which leaves 26th October - 17th November as the "normal" period during which temperatures first return to single figures. That three week period begins right around now. Today's Arctic blast is not extraordinary.
I can perform a similar analysis at various borderline temperatures.
The first autumn day not to reach 15°C: 9th Sep - 7th Oct The first autumn day not to reach 10°C: 26th Oct - 17th Nov The first autumn day not to reach 5°C: 30th Nov - 28th Dec
Roughly speaking, the first autumn day not to reach 15°C tends to be in the second half of September, i.e. the switchover between summer and autumn. The first day not to reach 10°C tends to be near the start of November, i.e. just after the clocks go back. And the first day not to reach 5°C tends to be in December (although in 2015 it slipped into mid-January). There are no clear patterns for "the first day not to get above freezing", as this is a much rarer event.
Those were firsts. How about lasts?
The last day to exceed 25°C: 7th Aug - 15th Sep The last day to exceed 20°C: 15th Sep - 16th Oct The last day to exceed 15°C: 28th Oct - 23rd Nov
Summer's last heatwave could be at any time in August or the first half of September. The last warm day (20°C or above) is a late September/early October thing. And the final mild day (15°C or above) is probably due during the next three weeks.
Then there's the other end of the year.
The first day to reach 15°C: 23rd Feb - 2nd Apr The first day to reach 20°C: 6th Apr - 30th Apr The first day to reach 25°C: 19th Apr - 12th Jun The first day to reach 30°C: 27th Jun - 18th Jul
London's first 15°C day is usually in March, 20°C in April, 25°C from mid-April to mid-June, and 30°C in July. If you live some distance from Hampstead, or elsewhere in Britain, I don't need to remind you that your dates may be different.
The last day not to exceed 5°C: 11th Feb - 19th Mar The last day not to exceed 10°C: 26th Mar - 11th May The last day not to exceed 15°C: 16th May - 17th Jun
If today is the first day this winter not to reach double figures, then the last such day is likely to be in April, maybe even early May. Only six months to wait. Wrap up warm.
Central London is well-blessed with stations, for which we must thank the Victorians and Edwardians. Wherever you are in Zone 1, there's very probably at least one tube or railway station within half a mile of where you're standing. But not quite everywhere is close to one, so today's challenge is to locate Zone 1's accessibility coldspot.
My first problem is that buildings, gardens and even the River Thames sometimes get in the way of where you want to go. To simplify things, I've decided to always measure distances in a straight line, even though it might not be possible to walk direct. This is helpful, because it means I can reuse the special 'Nearest station' map Ollie made for us earlier in the year. Wherever finally ends up being "the furthest from a station", I know it must be at one of the points where the boundary lines on Ollie's map meet.
My second problem is that Zone 1 isn't well defined. I know which stations are in Zone 1, or on the boundary, but today's question is about the areas inbetween which are much woollier. Everything within the Circle line is obviously in Zone 1, but the zone's extent is particularly unclear south of the river and nudging into the East End. My definition is going to be whether I think a station built at the point in question would likely be in Zone 1 or not. That's a bit subjective, but let's run through the contenders, firstly four "almost certainly yes"s and then two "most probably not"s.
The outright winner, the spot in Zone 1 furthest from a station, must lie within one of central London's largest parks. Hyde Park and Kensington Gardens cover over 600 acres and are entirely station-free, so let's look there. The Central line runs along the northern perimeter, with stations at Queensway, Lancaster Gate and Marble Arch, so my target should be somewhere nearer the opposite edge. It turns out that the "most remote" spot in Zone 1 is beside the Albert Memorial, in fact on the northern edge of the square surrounding it. From here Lancaster Gate, Gloucester Road and South Kensington are each almost precisely 1km away. I checked with Citymapper and it advised me of a 16 minute walk to each. Those who live elsewhere in the country might think 16 minutes is peanuts, but in central London it's about as far as you can get.
Embassy Gardens is the new luxury housing development going up around the US Embassy, on the southern side of the Thames. It may not surprise you to hear that the "most remote" spot hereabouts is the Chancery Building, the estate's lowlier shared ownership block. This lies back from Nine Elms Lane, beyond Waitrose, in what'll be a gloomy corner once all the surrounding towers shoot up and block out the sun. At present it's almost a kilometre from Battersea Park, Vauxhall and Pimlico stations - the latter impossible to reach direct because of the river. In a couple of years this spot will be approximately midway between two stations on the Northern line extension - Nine Elms and Battersea Power Station - so considerably better connected. It's Boris's pledge to place both of these in Zone 1 which allows me to confirm that Embassy Gardens deserves its place in my list.
My next inaccessible backwater lies along the main road hugging the north bank of the Thames between Battersea Bridge and Vauxhall Bridge. Specifically it's at the point where the mainline railway out of Victoria heads south across the river, beside the Grosvenor Road Carriage Sidings, almost immediately opposite Battersea Power Station. From 1867 to 1911 there was a station right here, unsurprisingly named Grosvenor Road, and its subsequent disappearance helps to explain why this spot became a hole in the existing network. Pimlico station on the Victoria line helped plug the gap in 1972, confirming we're in zone 1, but is still 900m away. The other stations we're 900m from are Victoria, Sloane Square and Battersea Park, each approximately 15 minutes walk away according to Citymapper.
Crossing town, here's an unexpectedly badly-connected spot in a proper built-up area. It's on the huge Royal Mail site at Mount Pleasant, specifically the undeveloped bit alongside Farringdon Road, close to the junction with Calthorpe Street. Five stations are almost equidistant, namely King's Cross, Angel, Farringdon, Chancery Lane and Russell Square, each approximately 13 minutes walk away according to Citymapper. What's ironic is that the Underground passes almost directly underneath, and also that this was London's very first Underground line. The Metropolitan Railway failed to build a station here in 1863, most likely because at the time this was the site of the notorious Coldbath Fields Prison upon which the Post Office mail centre would be built 25 years later. Alas nobody ever came back to fill in the gap by adding Mount Pleasant station, and today's economics dictate they never will, however useful it might be.
The Chelsea Embankment never got a tube service and remains a long way from any stations. The District line runs annoyingly far north, via South Kensington and Sloane Square, and the 9-year-old Overground station at Imperial Wharf is a similar distance to the west. I checked with Citymapper, and it advised me of a 20 minute walk to each. Most of the people who live in the smart houses along Cheyne Walk have a car, or would be happy to hail an Uber, so probably don't mind living so far from a station. It's no coincidence that Crossrail 2 is intended to bring Chelsea its very first rail connection, a little further north on the Kings Road. I'm just not quite convinced that this particular spot alongside the Albert Bridge really is in Zone 1, so it probably doesn't deserve to be on my list.
As another central expanse of green space, it's no surprise that Regent's Park contains another accessibility coldspot. The point furthest from any station lies amid the sports pitches on the northern side of the park, very close to the artificial hill of The Hub with its changing rooms and cafe. It's also very close to London Zoo, specifically the Reptile House, which helps to explain why the zoo is always a bit of a schlep for tourists to reach. The closest stations to the point in question are St John's Wood, Camden Town and Baker Street... although two of these are in zone 2. That's also the case for Mornington Crescent station, which lies almost due east, which again suggests that this particular spot couldn't genuinely be described as zone 1.
