diamond geezer

 Saturday, September 21, 2019

Is it autumn yet?

The answer to this question depends on what you mean by autumn.
(and which hemisphere you're in, but let's take that as read).
Autumn always used to start at the autumn equinox, a true astronomical definition based on orbits, planetary tilt and daylight totals.
The autumn equinox is the precise moment the Sun appears to cross the celestial equator, the point at which the northern hemisphere begins to tilt away from the Sun resulting in less direct sunlight and cooling temperatures. It's also the day the sun rises due east and sets due west, wherever you happen to be in the world.
But that's a difficult concept to get your head round, not least because the first day changes year on year.
Possible dates of the autumn equinox (London, BST)
1800-1807:
23rd September or 24th September
1808-1839: 23rd September only
1840-1899: 22nd September or 23rd September
1900-1935: 23rd September or 24th September
1936-1975: 23rd September only
1976-2063: 22nd September or 23rd September
2064-2095: 22nd September only
2096: 21st September
2097-2199: 22nd September or 23rd September
[cycle repeats every 400 years, approximately]
Generally it's always either 22nd September or 23rd September.
Very rarely, in years before leap years at the start of certain centuries, it's 24th September (most recently 1803, 1807, 1903, 1907, 1911, 1915, 1919, 1923, 1927, 1931 and 1935). Exceptionally rarely, in leap years just before an end of century non-leap year, it can be 21st September (next occurrence, 2096).
This year it's 23rd September, at 8.50am BST.
But it'll still be 22nd September in Hawaii. An autumn equinox on 21st September is a lot more likely in Hawaii, and an autumn equinox on 24th September is a lot more likely in New Zealand
So officially, no, it's not autumn until Monday.
The first day of autumn always falls later in the month than the first day of the other seasons - the 22nd or 23rd, rather than the 20th, 21st or 22nd. This is because our seasons are of different lengths, because the Earth's orbit around the sun is an ellipse not a circle. The Earth is furthest from the Sun in July. Summer is therefore our longest season, at 93 days, 15 hours and 31 minutes (timed between solstice and equinox), which nudges the autumn equinox later in the month. Meanwhile autumn is only 89 days, 20 hours and 4 minutes long, which nudges the winter solstice back towards the 21st of the month.
But these days a lot of people prefer to use meteorological autumn instead.
Meteorologists don't like seasons that start on different dates each year, because that makes comparing data harder. Instead they choose to use periods of three complete months, based on average monthly temperatures, with summer as the warmest (June/July/August) and winter as the coldest (December/January/February).
And meteorological autumn started on 1st September.
Meteorological seasons run about three weeks ahead of astronomical seasons, prioritising the first day of an arbitrary calendar month over the phenomenon of an equinox or solstice. It makes sense if you're a meteorologist.
It seems the wider world, particularly the media, has started to embrace meteorological autumn because it's a lot easier to understand.
In the first week of September the internet was awash with chirpy press releases praising autumn activities, and social media bluster invoking misty mornings, icy windscreens and crunching brown leaves underfoot. No matter that temperatures at the start of September were in the 20°s, and nature's leafy carpet won't be with us before October, the PR calendar decreed open season on autumnal imagery and off they fired. Nobody looked out of the window, they just read the calendar.
But is it right to be counting the first three weeks of September as autumn instead of summer?
That's a very interesting question, which boils down to asking whether summer should include the first three weeks of September or the first three weeks of June. The evenings are always lighter in June. The sea is always warmer in September. Daytime temperatures are often quite similar. Overnight temperatures are surprisingly similar too. It's not so much of a done deal as you might think.
Another way of judging the seasons is by observing natural phenomena... so-called phenological indicators.
These cover a range of ecological and biological signs such as the leaves falling off the trees and the migration of birds to warmer climates.
The Woodland Trust has produced a fascinating calendar to show when events like this normally happen.
The last swallows disappear between the end of August and the start of October. Ash trees start to change colour, and holly berries appear, in September or October. Oak leaves fall between the end of September and the end of November. Horse chestnuts become bare trees in November. Generally speaking.
But watching nature is not the most reliable way of determining a definite start date for the autumn season.
The Woodland Trust use 2007 as their reference year, because it had the most average conditions in recent years. Natural events are greatly influenced by weather and climate, causing autumn to start earlier or later than the standard astronomical or meteorological definitions, and climate change will only accelerate the variations.
Hence the need for a more reliable start date, be that 1st September or the autumn equinox.
And 1st September is inexorably taking over, because it doesn't require much thought, and modern social media very much appreciates the simple. What we're seeing is the realignment of the start of autumn, the dumbing down of the autumn equinox, as society embraces a decision meteorologists only made to improve the reliability of their data.
n.b. The equinox isn't even the day on which day and night are the same length...
At the equinoxes, the geometric centre of the Sun is above the horizon for exactly 12 hours. But sunrise is defined as the moment the upper edge of the sun's disc becomes visible above the horizon, and sunset refers to the moment the Sun's upper edge disappears below the horizon. The time it takes for the sun to fully rise and set, which is several minutes, has to be added to the day and subtracted from the night, and therefore the equinox day lasts a little longer than 12 hours.
...that's Wednesday...
It's Wednesday for those who live between 45° and 60° North - that's the whole of the UK. It's Thursday at 40°N, Friday at 30°N and Saturday at 20°N.
...because the sun takes a finite time to set.
Here's the maths. The Sun's diameter is approximately ½ degree out of 360°, which equates to 1/720th of a day, or two minutes, which is how roughly long the sun takes to set at the equator. The duration of sunset increases as you get closer to the poles, where sometimes it never sets.

At the autumn equinox the setting sun hits the horizon at its steepest possible angle, and the duration of sunset can be calculated according to the formula 128/cosφ seconds (where φ is the latitude). Here in London, this particular weekend, the sun takes 3 minutes 26 seconds to set. It takes 3m20s in Plymouth, 3m30s in Birmingham, 3m40s in the Lake District, 3m50s in Edinburgh and 4m in Inverness.

At the summer solstice the sun descends at a shallower angle, so London's sunset takes 4 minutes 33 seconds. The formula for this is 142/cos(1.14φ), near enough, so long as you stay away from the poles.
Maybe there is good reason why the astronomical equinox is being overtaken by the meteorological.
Or maybe we're just lazy.
Whatever, we're still in the good half of the year until Monday, so get out there and enjoy today's late summer/early autumn heatwave.


<< click for Newer posts

click for Older Posts >>


click to return to the main page


...or read more in my monthly archives
Jan24  Feb24  Mar24  Apr24  May24  Jun24  Jul24  Aug24  Sep24  Oct24  Nov24  Dec24
Jan23  Feb23  Mar23  Apr23  May23  Jun23  Jul23  Aug23  Sep23  Oct23  Nov23  Dec23
Jan22  Feb22  Mar22  Apr22  May22  Jun22  Jul22  Aug22  Sep22  Oct22  Nov22  Dec22
Jan21  Feb21  Mar21  Apr21  May21  Jun21  Jul21  Aug21  Sep21  Oct21  Nov21  Dec21
Jan20  Feb20  Mar20  Apr20  May20  Jun20  Jul20  Aug20  Sep20  Oct20  Nov20  Dec20
Jan19  Feb19  Mar19  Apr19  May19  Jun19  Jul19  Aug19  Sep19  Oct19  Nov19  Dec19
Jan18  Feb18  Mar18  Apr18  May18  Jun18  Jul18  Aug18  Sep18  Oct18  Nov18  Dec18
Jan17  Feb17  Mar17  Apr17  May17  Jun17  Jul17  Aug17  Sep17  Oct17  Nov17  Dec17
Jan16  Feb16  Mar16  Apr16  May16  Jun16  Jul16  Aug16  Sep16  Oct16  Nov16  Dec16
Jan15  Feb15  Mar15  Apr15  May15  Jun15  Jul15  Aug15  Sep15  Oct15  Nov15  Dec15
Jan14  Feb14  Mar14  Apr14  May14  Jun14  Jul14  Aug14  Sep14  Oct14  Nov14  Dec14
Jan13  Feb13  Mar13  Apr13  May13  Jun13  Jul13  Aug13  Sep13  Oct13  Nov13  Dec13
Jan12  Feb12  Mar12  Apr12  May12  Jun12  Jul12  Aug12  Sep12  Oct12  Nov12  Dec12
Jan11  Feb11  Mar11  Apr11  May11  Jun11  Jul11  Aug11  Sep11  Oct11  Nov11  Dec11
Jan10  Feb10  Mar10  Apr10  May10  Jun10  Jul10  Aug10  Sep10  Oct10  Nov10  Dec10 
Jan09  Feb09  Mar09  Apr09  May09  Jun09  Jul09  Aug09  Sep09  Oct09  Nov09  Dec09
Jan08  Feb08  Mar08  Apr08  May08  Jun08  Jul08  Aug08  Sep08  Oct08  Nov08  Dec08
Jan07  Feb07  Mar07  Apr07  May07  Jun07  Jul07  Aug07  Sep07  Oct07  Nov07  Dec07
Jan06  Feb06  Mar06  Apr06  May06  Jun06  Jul06  Aug06  Sep06  Oct06  Nov06  Dec06
Jan05  Feb05  Mar05  Apr05  May05  Jun05  Jul05  Aug05  Sep05  Oct05  Nov05  Dec05
Jan04  Feb04  Mar04  Apr04  May04  Jun04  Jul04  Aug04  Sep04  Oct04  Nov04  Dec04
Jan03  Feb03  Mar03  Apr03  May03  Jun03  Jul03  Aug03  Sep03  Oct03  Nov03  Dec03
 Jan02  Feb02  Mar02  Apr02  May02  Jun02  Jul02 Aug02  Sep02  Oct02  Nov02  Dec02 

jack of diamonds
Life viewed from London E3

» email me
» follow me on twitter
» follow the blog on Twitter
» follow the blog on RSS

» my flickr photostream

twenty blogs
our bow
arseblog
ian visits
londonist
broken tv
blue witch
on london
the great wen
edith's streets
spitalfields life
linkmachinego
round the island
wanstead meteo
christopher fowler
the greenwich wire
bus and train user
ruth's coastal walk
round the rails we go
london reconnections
from the murky depths

quick reference features
Things to do in Outer London
Things to do outside London
London's waymarked walks
Inner London toilet map
20 years of blog series
The DG Tour of Britain
London's most...

read the archive
Dec24  Nov24  Oct24  Sep24
Aug24  Jul24  Jun24  May24
Apr24  Mar24  Feb24  Jan24
Dec23  Nov23  Oct23  Sep23
Aug23  Jul23  Jun23  May23
Apr23  Mar23  Feb23  Jan23
Dec22  Nov22  Oct22  Sep22
Aug22  Jul22  Jun22  May22
Apr22  Mar22  Feb22  Jan22
Dec21  Nov21  Oct21  Sep21
Aug21  Jul21  Jun21  May21
Apr21  Mar21  Feb21  Jan21
Dec20  Nov20  Oct20  Sep20
Aug20  Jul20  Jun20  May20
Apr20  Mar20  Feb20  Jan20
Dec19  Nov19  Oct19  Sep19
Aug19  Jul19  Jun19  May19
Apr19  Mar19  Feb19  Jan19
Dec18  Nov18  Oct18  Sep18
Aug18  Jul18  Jun18  May18
Apr18  Mar18  Feb18  Jan18
Dec17  Nov17  Oct17  Sep17
Aug17  Jul17  Jun17  May17
Apr17  Mar17  Feb17  Jan17
Dec16  Nov16  Oct16  Sep16
Aug16  Jul16  Jun16  May16
Apr16  Mar16  Feb16  Jan16
Dec15  Nov15  Oct15  Sep15
Aug15  Jul15  Jun15  May15
Apr15  Mar15  Feb15  Jan15
Dec14  Nov14  Oct14  Sep14
Aug14  Jul14  Jun14  May14
Apr14  Mar14  Feb14  Jan14
Dec13  Nov13  Oct13  Sep13
Aug13  Jul13  Jun13  May13
Apr13  Mar13  Feb13  Jan13
Dec12  Nov12  Oct12  Sep12
Aug12  Jul12  Jun12  May12
Apr12  Mar12  Feb12  Jan12
Dec11  Nov11  Oct11  Sep11
Aug11  Jul11  Jun11  May11
Apr11  Mar11  Feb11  Jan11
Dec10  Nov10  Oct10  Sep10
Aug10  Jul10  Jun10  May10
Apr10  Mar10  Feb10  Jan10
Dec09  Nov09  Oct09  Sep09
Aug09  Jul09  Jun09  May09
Apr09  Mar09  Feb09  Jan09
Dec08  Nov08  Oct08  Sep08
Aug08  Jul08  Jun08  May08
Apr08  Mar08  Feb08  Jan08
Dec07  Nov07  Oct07  Sep07
Aug07  Jul07  Jun07  May07
Apr07  Mar07  Feb07  Jan07
Dec06  Nov06  Oct06  Sep06
Aug06  Jul06  Jun06  May06
Apr06  Mar06  Feb06  Jan06
Dec05  Nov05  Oct05  Sep05
Aug05  Jul05  Jun05  May05
Apr05  Mar05  Feb05  Jan05
Dec04  Nov04  Oct04  Sep04
Aug04  Jul04  Jun04  May04
Apr04  Mar04  Feb04  Jan04
Dec03  Nov03  Oct03  Sep03
Aug03  Jul03  Jun03  May03
Apr03  Mar03  Feb03  Jan03
Dec02  Nov02  Oct02  Sep02
back to main page

the diamond geezer index
2023 2022
2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
2006 2005 2004 2003 2002

my special London features
a-z of london museums
E3 - local history month
greenwich meridian (N)
greenwich meridian (S)
the real eastenders
london's lost rivers
olympic park 2007
great british roads
oranges & lemons
random boroughs
bow road station
high street 2012
river westbourne
trafalgar square
capital numbers
east london line
lea valley walk
olympics 2005
regent's canal
square routes
silver jubilee
unlost rivers
cube routes
Herbert Dip
metro-land
capital ring
river fleet
piccadilly
bakerloo

ten of my favourite posts
the seven ages of blog
my new Z470xi mobile
five equations of blog
the dome of doom
chemical attraction
quality & risk
london 2102
single life
boredom
april fool

ten sets of lovely photos
my "most interesting" photos
london 2012 olympic zone
harris and the hebrides
betjeman's metro-land
marking the meridian
tracing the river fleet
london's lost rivers
inside the gherkin
seven sisters
iceland

just surfed in?
here's where to find...
diamond geezers
flash mob #1  #2  #3  #4
ben schott's miscellany
london underground
watch with mother
cigarette warnings
digital time delay
wheelie suitcases
war of the worlds
transit of venus
top of the pops
old buckenham
ladybird books
acorn antiques
digital watches
outer hebrides
olympics 2012
school dinners
pet shop boys
west wycombe
bletchley park
george orwell
big breakfast
clapton pond
san francisco
thunderbirds
routemaster
children's tv
east enders
trunk roads
amsterdam
little britain
credit cards
jury service
big brother
jubilee line
number 1s
titan arum
typewriters
doctor who
coronation
comments
blue peter
matchgirls
hurricanes
buzzwords
brookside
monopoly
peter pan
starbucks
feng shui
leap year
manbags
bbc three
vision on
piccadilly
meridian
concorde
wembley
islington
ID cards
bedtime
freeview
beckton
blogads
eclipses
letraset
arsenal
sitcoms
gherkin
calories
everest
muffins
sudoku
camilla
london
ceefax
robbie
becks
dome
BBC2
paris
lotto
118
itv