 diamond geezer
Sunday, March 21, 2021
Census Day is here, the day on which the government counts everyone to make sure it can plan for our future. It nearly didn't bother this year because of the expense, but was persuaded that a digital-first enumeration would still be enormously valuable.
This is the 22nd UK census since 1801. They take place every ten years, the sole exception being 1941 when battling Germany took precedence. They normally take place in late March or April, with the date varying to dodge Easter. 21st March is the earliest census date since 1801 (when it was held on 10th March). Scotland is delaying its count until next March (on a date yet to be confirmed).
Individual data is kept private for 100 years. This means censuses up to and including 1911 are currently available for research (so long as you pay a subscription) and 1921 is due to be released next year. Make the most of it. The 1931 census won't be released because it was destroyed by fire in 1942 and 1941 never happened, so the subsequent release will be 1951 in the 2050s.
Let's have a look at the census data for the populations of the UK and England over time. I've rounded the totals to the nearest thousand, skipped most of the 19th century and used official estimates for 1941 and 2019.
| | UK | England |
| 1801 | 10,942,000 | 8,331,000 |
| 1851 | 27,369,000 | 15,289,000 |
| 1901 | 38,237,000 | 30,072,000 |
| 1911 | 42,082,000 | 33,561,000 |
| 1921 | 44,026,000 | 35,230,000 |
| 1931 | 46,075,000 | 37,359,000 |
| 1941 | 48,216,000 | 38,084,000 |
| 1951 | 50,225,000 | 38,669,000 |
| 1961 | 52,709,000 | 41,159,000 |
| 1971 | 55,515,000 | 43,461,000 |
| 1981 | 55,100,000 | 45,978,000 |
| 1991 | 57,439,000 | 48,198,000 |
| 2001 | 59,113,000 | 49,139,000 |
| 2011 | 63,182,000 | 53,107,000 |
| 2019 | 66,797,000 | 56,283,000 |
The UK's population passed 40 million in 1911, 50 million in 1951 and 60 million in 2011. It's generally increased by about 4-6% every ten years. The greatest increase (10%) was between the 1901 and 1911 censuses. The only slight downward hiccup was in the 1970s driven by net international emigration. England makes up the lion's share of the UK and its population has been rising at a marginally faster rate. Again the steepest rises took place before the First World War.
Today's census is all about finding out what the 2021 figures will be. They might have risen higher than the 2019 estimate, but more likely they've fallen back as EU citizens emigrate after Brexit. The impact of Covid-19 is likely to be less significant given that 80,000 excess deaths equates to just 0.1% of the overall population.
Here's the corresponding data for London and my home borough of Tower Hamlets. Population figures relate to the current Greater London boundary so cover the same area throughout.
| | London | Tower Hamlets |
| 1801 | 1,097,000 | 144,000 |
| 1851 | 2,651,000 | 377,000 |
| 1901 | 6,510,000 | 597,000 |
| 1911 | 7,162,000 | 570,000 |
| 1921 | 7,387,000 | 529,000 |
| 1931 | 8,110,000 | 489,000 |
| 1941 | 8,615,000 | 419,000 |
| 1951 | 8,197,000 | 231,000 |
| 1961 | 7,997,094 | 205,682 |
| 1971 | 7,452,000 | 166,000 |
| 1981 | 6,713,165 | 142,841 |
| 1991 | 6,393,568 | 153,255 |
| 2001 | 7,172,057 | 196,083 |
| 2011 | 8,173,941 | 254,096 |
| 2019 | 8,961,989 | 324,745 |
I've used red text to show a falling population.
I've used bold text to show a population change of 10% or more.
London's population exploded in the 19th century and continued rising rapidly until the Second World War. It then fell back sharply over several decades as the crowded city no longer appealed, until the 1990s when the lure of the capital rose again. London's population overtook its previous 1939 peak in 2015 and looked to be climbing inexorably through 9 million. But Brexit and Covid are likely to affect the capital more than any other part of the country as continental residents head back overseas and ex office-workers flee for the Home Counties. If the census reveals London's population has fallen then there's every risk of cuts to investment and local services.
A graph of Tower Hamlets' population would resemble a rollercoaster ride. The East End packed out early courtesy of the docks, creating neighbourhoods densely-packed with slums. The population peaked in 1911 then fell back, accelerating sharply downwards after the Blitz. Over the next 40 years it slumped by two-thirds as the suburbs proved more attractive, reaching an abject low in the 1980s, but it's more than doubled since courtesy of Docklands and a wider inner London renaissance.
Tower Hamlets is currently Britain's fastest growing borough, mainly because so much extra housing continues to be squeezed in. The census is thus extra-important to my borough to ensure that schools, health provision and infrastructure continue to reflect the population that lives here. Completing my online form will help filter a few more pounds this way, and hopefully your way too.
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