Something unexpected happened yesterday when they announced yet another delay to HS2.
I lost interest, because I might be dead before it opens.
According to the Transport Secretary HS2 will happen, which is good.
But it will be very very expensive and very very late, which is not.
» In 2011, the first time the government provided a prediction, HS2 would connect London to the West Midlands by 2026 and onwards to Leeds and Manchester by 2033 at a cost of £37bn.
» After the legs to Leeds and Manchester were scrapped the expectation was that the remainder between London and Birmingham would open between 2029 and 2033 at a cost of £65bn.
» The latest expectation is that the line from Birmingham won't reach Old Oak Common until [May 2036 - October 2039] and Euston until [May 2040 - December 2043] at a cost of [£88bn - £103bn].
They're giving ranges for everything now, this one of the recommendations of the Lovegrove Review which has dug deep into lessons to be learned by the Civil Service. But the earliest HS2 could reach London is now 10 years from now, and the latest it could reach Euston is 17½ years from now, by which time I might be dead.
It seems ridiculous. They'd drawn a precise line on a map thirteen years ago, which they've stuck to. They started construction six years ago and have already finished much of the infrastructure. The Colne Valley Viaduct is already complete but the first crossing is ten years off, indeed nobody's ordered any trains yet. Curzon Street and Old Oak Common stations are already substantially built, if nowhere near complete. Trams already run to the HS2 terminus in Birmingham, a mostly pointless spur until HS2 itself arrives. Demolition near Euston started eight years ago, but won't become functioning platforms until at least 14 years time. Meanwhile millions of Britons are born and die, thus 15 million of those who heard HS2 announced in 2009 won't be around to see it open.
It was mention of the 2040s that jolted me. The Bakerloo line extension also has an earliest possible completion date of 2040 but that didn't hit me in the same way. I think that's because it isn't funded thus isn't currently going ahead, hence the 2040 deadline is a shibboleth. But HS2 is currently bolted down so will at some point appear, just maybe when I can no longer ride it.
Other large infrastructure projects with a deadline in the 2030s have usually made me think "ooh that'll be good", the unspoken expectation being that I'll experience them one day. But seeing [May 2040 - December 2043] as the backstop deadline here made me translate that into ages... [75 years old - nearly 79 years old] and that proved unexpectedly jarring. What if I'm dead by then?
I'm not being morbid here, I don't have an expectation of stunted longevity, merely an understanding of probability and increased risk. Only one of my grandparents made it to 75, ditto only one parent, also I know which side of my family I take after. And whilst none of us know for sure we'll be here next week, let alone next year, it's only realistic to have more doubts about ten, fifteen, twenty years hence. I wouldn't have had doubts when I was in my 30s, thus when Crossrail was first announced I expected to ride it and nineteen years later I did. But HS2 could still be a similar margin away, and as a 61 year-old I've discovered that doubts have now crept in.
Which is annoying because I have a lot of questions I realise now may never be answered.
When HS2 reaches Old Oak Common in [May 2036 - October 2039] how will Crossrail cope? How often will trains run to Birmingham? Will you see anything out of the window or will all the tunnels and environmental barriers ensure that the journey is an unenjoyable whizz? Will fares on parallel routes to Birmingham go down, relatively speaking? Will PM Nigel Farage scrap the line or name it after himself? Will one or two new Overground stations get added at Old Oak Common? Will Rishi Sunak be barred from the debut service? What will the current wastelands south of Willesden Junction turn into? And will fares be so unappealingly high that even when it's open I won't want to pay, thus rendering my wait for HS2 irrelevant?
As for HS2 reaching Euston in [May 2040 - December 2043], I may very well not know what that ends up looking like. What will they do with the space where platforms 7-10 were originally intended to go? How will the Underground station cope? Do they really intend to hide the new platforms underground to make room for commercial development? Will they link HS1 to HS2 via a blingy subway or a crappy footpath? Will all Birmingham trains stop at Old Oak Common or will some run non-stop? Will it be possible to buy a superfast ticket for under £100, at 2040 prices? Will they have to implement time-consuming security checks that negate all the supposed time saved? Will the fare from Euston to Birmingham be intrinsically higher than Old Oak Common to Birmingham? How many coffee shops will be built on the site of the Bree Louise? Will OOC-Euston appear on the tube map, and how much of a mess will it make? Most importantly, when it's all up and running will we all think it's brilliant or wonder why on earth we bothered? I may never know.
I expect to see 2030. I very much hope to see 2035. I'd be really pleased to reach 2040. I have a suspicion I may not make 2045. I'm not confident of reaching 2050. I'm not at all confident of seeing 2055. I don't expect to experience the 2060s at all.
It's jarring to realise that many of you reading this will see marvels I will never know and witness achievements I'll never see. For balance you'll also face catastrophes I will never endure, nor even know I missed. We all get a slot on this earth and for many people HS2 now falls outside that envelope.
I thank HS2's elongated timeline for forcing me to face mortal reality, not because I expect to miss its completion but because I realise I might. There comes a time when some projects take so long to complete that we may not be around to see them finished.
