Two weeks before Oxford Street was pedestrianised I rode buses up and down the selected stretch to see how long it took. Two weeks afterwards I've been back with my stopwatch to do the same. The question I wanted to answer was "how much longer does it take?"
What I did
• I went to Oxford Street late on a Friday morning.
• I rode the 94, 98, 139 and 390 once in both directions.
• I rode from the stop before the closure to the stop after.
• I timed the journey and counted how many times a red light stopped us.
Here are the times I got pre-pedestrianisation.
94
east
Marble Arch → Oxford Circus
1.1km
8m 10s
(5 red lights)
98
east
Marble Arch → Oxford Circus
1.3km
7m 40s
(5 red lights)
390
east
Marble Arch → Oxford Circus
1.3km
7m 00s
(5 red lights)
94
west
Oxford Circus → Marble Arch
1.1km
8m 10s
(8 red lights)
98
west
Oxford Circus → Marble Arch
1.2km
10m 10s
(8 red lights)
390
west
Oxford Circus → Marble Arch
1.4km
9m 50s
(8 red lights)
8 minutes, then, was a decent average for bussing along Oxford Street.
I didn't ride the 94 yesterday because it's been cut back to Marble Arch so longer reaches Oxford Circus. But I did go back and ride the 98 and 390 back and forth between exactly the same bus stops at Marble Arch and Oxford Circus, this time along the prescribed parallel diversion via Wigmore Street.
And yes, post-pedestrianisation it did indeed take longer.
98
east
Marble Arch → Oxford Circus
1.8km
11m 20s
(7 red lights)
390
east
Marble Arch → Oxford Circus
1.8km
14m 30s
(10 red lights)
98
west
Oxford Circus → Marble Arch
1.6km
14m 20s
(12 red lights)
390
west
Oxford Circus → Marble Arch
1.6km
13m 30s
(10 red lights)
13 minutes, now, is a decent average for bussing round Oxford Street. That's 5 minutes longer than before.
Previously all the journeys were 10 minutes or less, now they're all over 10 minutes. The main reason for this is that the route is longer, at least 500m longer, because buses have to head up to Wigmore Street and then head back. This increases the number of junctions which inevitably increases the number of red lights. For westbound buses Marylebone Lane has a particularly brief flash of green, so if you get stuck there you could be stuck for ages.
In my previous survey there were 5-8 stoppages at red, but this it was time more like 10. I thought my eastbound 98 was properly speeding through, getting lucky with the greens, but it still took longer than all the previous journeys.
One issue is a set of temporary traffic lights at the junction of Oxford Street and Great Portland Street where roadworks have narrowed the road. It's fairly narrow anyway, Great Portland Street not being especially suitable as a main thoroughfare, especially where it doubles up as a stand for route 73. We got through the lights fairly easily so they barely held us up, but in their absence journey times might (might) have been up to a minute shorter.
I've kept route 139 separate because it goes a different way and never reaches Marble Arch, hopping instead between Regent Street and Baker Street. This means it doesn't have to come back to Oxford Street so the diversion via Wigmore Street is the same length as the previous route. But does same length mean same time?
Here's before and after on the 139.
139
east
Portman Square → Hamleys
1.4km
8m 30s
(7 red lights)
139
west
Hamleys → Portman Square
1.3km
8m 20s
(7 red lights)
139
east
Portman Square → Hamleys
1.4km
10m 30s
(7 red lights)
139
west
Hamleys → Portman Square
1.3km
9m 20s
(6 red lights)
Average beforehand 8½ minutes, average afterwards 10 minutes. That's 1½ minutes longer than before.
A much smaller difference this time, but still slower because there's now more traffic on Wigmore Street than there was previously on Oxford Street. It's a very small sample of journeys so perhaps don't read too much into it, but it does looks like any impact to route to 139 is much smaller.
TfL produced an impact assessment as part of their consultation into pedestrianising Oxford Street and here's what their predictions said.
Bus journey time
• Most local bus routes would operate similar journey times, seeing an overall change of a minute or less in the AM and PM peaks.
• The routes that would experience the largest increase in journey time are the 98 and the 390. These routes previously used Oxford Street and are proposed to use a longer route via Wigmore St.
• Route 98 west would see journey times increase 2-3 minutes in the AM and 3-5 minutes in the PM peak.
• Route 98 east would see journey times increase 3-5 minutes in the AM and 2-3 minutes in the PM peak.
TfL predicted route 98 would take 2-5 minutes longer at peak times.
My survey showed routes 98 and 390 are taking 4-5 minutes longer off-peak.
TfL predicted route 139 would take ½-2 minutes longer at peak times.
My survey showed route 139 is taking 1½ minutes longer off-peak.
Viewed in percentage terms it looks worse. For these precise journeys route 139 is taking 15% longer and routes 98 and 390 are taking 60% longer. The increase on the 139 is dismissible but on the 98 and 390 it's significant.
On the day Oxford Street was pedestrianised TfL Commissioner Andy Lord went on BBC London and said this.
He was wrong.
It is true that the dozen buses that glance either end of the pedestrianised section haven't seen a significant difference in journey time. However the two routes that would have travelled along the pedestrianised section have been noticeably slowed, on a good day by 4-5 minutes and in heavy traffic likely a lot more.
It looked lovely under the Christmas lights yesterday with a multitude of shoppers walking in the street where previously they'd have been mown down. But if you're visiting do try to avoid taking either of the two bus routes running parallel to Oxford Street, the 98 and 390, because they now take a lot longer and any festive spirit will soon be squeezed away.
