Six months from now it'll be 2nd January 2021 and we'll be in one of these eight alternative futures. But which one?
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
LOCKDOWN
NEW NORMAL
HARD BREXIT
DEAL
HARD BREXIT
DEAL
TRUMP
NOT
TRUMP
TRUMP
NOT
TRUMP
TRUMP
NOT
TRUMP
TRUMP
NOT
TRUMP
Pick a number, and leave your prediction here. predictions
To be clear this isn't the future you want, it's the future you expect.
• Lockdown: I'm defining LOCKDOWN as anything tougher than the new regime that starts on Saturday (e.g. how things were in April, May or June) and NEW NORMAL as anything better (e.g. pubs and restaurants being open). Hopefully the virus will be under greater control by January, but it'll also be midwinter so perhaps more likely not.
• Brexit: The UK's transition period can't officially be extended now that 30th June has passed, so either a deal will be struck with the EU or we're going to crash out on New Year's Eve on WTO terms. If you think the deadline will (somehow) get extended (again) into 2021, pick Deal.
• Trump: Donald's up for re-election in November but won't go down without a fight. By January we will, or should, know whether he's staying for another four years or not.
I'm asking because we're notoriously bad at predicting the future, and because when that future arrives we often forget how bad we were at predicting it. Brexit/Boris/Trump feels like normality today, but four years ago when I presented you with a similar eightfold choice you didn't see it coming.
Predictions above, please, and any general comments in the normal comments box below.
And then on 2nd January 2021 we can look back and see whether we saw it coming this time.
